Oh, Canada! – POLITICO

Good Monday morning. This is Stefan Boscia at the G7 in Alberta and Andrew McDonald in London.

DRIVING THE DAY

JUST A FEW THINGS ON: The leaders of the free world meet in the Canadian Rockies today to discuss the very real prospect of all-out war in the Middle East. G7 leaders will hold their first meetings at the Kananaskis summit and the worsening Israel-Iran conflict will be top of the agenda. Donald Trump will join discussions on how to de-escalate the situation too, after spending days inflaming tensions on social media.

All of which is happening … as a busy week in Westminster kicks off with a Commons statement on Britain’s grooming gangs shame — but more on all that further down this email.

Differing approaches: G7 leaders will hold group sessions and pair off for one-on-one meetings today to develop a plan to de-escalate the fighting. Keir Starmer told hacks on the way over that there would be many “intense” conversations about the worsening conflict and called for calm. Trump, meanwhile, did not rule out U.S. involvement on Sunday. There’s a seven-hour time difference, so the action will start filtering out mid-afternoon U.K. time.

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Trump’s threats: The U.S. president told ABC News that “it’s possible we could get involved,” and posted on Truth Social that the “full strength and might” of the U.S. military is ready to retaliate if Iran attacks American interests. The U.K. itself moved Typhoon fighter jets to the region over the weekend, after Iran threatened to hit British military assets.

Trump vetoes assassination: Reuters got the jaw-dropping Sunday scoop that Trump vetoed an Israeli plan to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the lead-up to its initial attack last week. A U.S. official said the administration is “not even talking about going after the political leadership” unless Iran harms an American. Netanyahu told Fox News there are “so many false reports of conversations that never happened, I’m not going to get into that.” Which isn’t quite a denial.

Non-vetoed assassination: Iranian state media confirmed overnight that IRGC intelligence chief Mohammad Kazemi was killed in an Israeli strike Sunday, after Netanyahu had announced his death. Iran fired back during the night at Israel, killing at least five people. The cities hit include Haifa, Tel Aviv and Petah Tikva. More on the Beeb’s live blog here.

Likely to be asked about all of that today … is Foreign Secretary David Lammy, who will make a statement to the Commons some time after 3.30 p.m. (depending on parliamentary business). Officials stressed that his focus is, and will be, on reiterating the government’s advice to British nationals in Israel — but anxious MPs are bound to keep asking whether British jets could come to Israel’s aid, and what the chief diplomat thinks of Trump’s comments. He won’t bite, of course.

Also to be expected: Although the statement will focus on developments in Iran and Israel, some MPs may also use the moment to ask Lammy for a firmer commitment from the government on recognizing Palestine. That’s after Starmer resisted the urge to go any further than the current position on doing it at some point, as part of a process. The Indy’s David Maddox wrote up those comments here. MP after MP raised the issue when Foreign Office Minister Hamish Falconer addressed the Commons last week, and criticism of the PM is growing in Labour ranks. Starmer’s “position on this whole situation has generally been about six to nine months behind where it should have been,” one Labour MP told Playbook.

ALSO ON THE AGENDA: World leaders will be formally welcomed to the G7 later today, with the customary family photo to follow late tonight. The world’s media will be watching for the slightest hint of drama during all of Trump’s on-camera interactions with other leaders. Will we get the pleasure of any power handshakes or awkward hot mic moments? And will Starmer swap his dad trainers for something more formal?

Get your popcorn ready: The summit’s first proper news-making moment today should be Trump’s bilat with Mark Carney, which is scheduled for 4 p.m. U.K. time. Trump’s preference to take pre-meeting media questions should hopefully provide ample opportunity for lines on Israel-Iran, tariffs and whether the president still has designs on Canada as the 51st state.

Also look out for this: Trump is also due to meet Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum at some stage during the G7. No word on timings yet.

Sad face: Starmer will hope to nail down an extensive meeting with Trump during the summit. But our D.C. colleagues suggest this may be tricky since the U.S. president is planning on precious few full bilats, which may mean the U.K. has to settle for a shorter brush-by meeting on the sidelines.

First cab off the rank: Starmer’s exact bilat schedule is murky, with No. 10 staying schtum for now on whom the PM will meet one-on-one. However, he did meet Italian PM Giorgia Meloni after arriving in Kananaskis on Sunday night to chat about defense and illegal migration. Meloni said before the meeting she was “very happy about all of our cooperation on migration.” Starmer said: “It’s always a pleasure and privilege to talk these things through with like-minded people like yourself.” Rishi Sunak must feel just a little hurt.

Banging heads together: The PM said he would raise the issue of small boats with all other European leaders at the summit, as he called for “international partnerships and solutions.” He told traveling journalists that he wanted to see “more cooperation” in northern France to stop the surge of small boat arrivals.

Also on the table: Europe’s leaders will try to convince Trump during the summit to hit Russia with more sanctions. The EU is pushing for Trump to agree to slash the Russian oil price cap from $60 to $45, which would reduce the funds available for Vladimir Putin’s war machine. Officials tell Playbook that the U.K. will also back this push. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said at a Sunday night press conference that “we must put more pressure on Russia to secure a real ceasefire, to bring Russia to the negotiating table, and to end this war. Sanctions are critical to that end.”

But back to like-minded people: There will also be jostling over who is the true Trump whisperer at this summit. POLITICO has a piece out this morning on the battle to be the bridge between the White House and Europe. Trump’s former national security adviser John Bolton, who was at the disastrous 2018 G7 with Trump, warned Starmer that he should not use up too much of Britain’s political capital trying to play this role.

TALKING TRADE: The PM also met Carney twice over the weekend, including a full bilat on Sunday, to talk about boosting U.K.-Canada trade. Carney agreed to ratify the U.K.’s CPTPP membership, while the pair agreed to establish a “task force” to explore relaunching trade agreement negotiations, which broke down in 2024. (Basically, talks about talks.)

Wander round the grounds: Starmer inspected the British high commission on Sunday as he prepared to meet with a bunch of business executives. Britain’s High Commissioner Robert Tinline chaperoned the PM around the new and uber-modern building, which recently had the honor of having its canteen officially opened by Foreign Minister Stephen Doughty. (There is even a shiny gold plaque for posterity’s sake.) Tinline, whose brother works for Starmer in No. 10, also showed off the high commission’s resident groundhog from the balcony above.

BACK TO TRUMP: If Starmer does get enough time with Trump, he will surely want to discuss the AUKUS deefnse/submarine deal between the U.S., U.K. and Australia. Starmer said en route to the summit that there was “no doubt” Trump would back AUKUS despite the Pentagon reviewing the program. (Read more on that here.) Australian PM Anthony Albanese, here in Canada as a guest leader, will also be very anxious to chat about AUKUS over the next couple days.

As for the other looming Trump issue: The hope in Whitehall is that a written statement updating parliament on the implementation of the U.S. trade deal will now come on Tuesday, POLITICO’s trade team and Playbook both hear. But officials admit the fast-moving situation in the Middle East is messing up all the planned timings.

While the White House … seems to have already moved on to looking at what else it can squeeze out of Britain in exchange for fewer tariffs in the future. The Telegraph splashes on White House sources who say they expect the NHS to pay higher prices for American drugs going forward.

One thing not to expect from the next few days: It’s worth noting that there won’t be an official joint communiqué at the end of the summit, as is usually the case. There is likely to instead be individual agreements on different topics, due to fears that Trump wouldn’t sign up to a final joint statement. But there is no guarantee the U.S. will be willing to sign even these smaller agreements. It could be a bumpy couple of days.

BACK IN LONDON

GROOMING GANGS SHAME: Home Secretary Yvette Cooper will formally announce to the Commons a full national inquiry into the state’s failure to protect hundreds of girls from sexual abuse by grooming gangs. Crucially, it will examine whether fear of accusations of racism contributed to that failure. Months of pressure on the government finally came to a head over the weekend as Starmer finally accepted Louise Casey’s recommendation for a national probe. Attention will now turn to the scope, length and leadership of the inquiry — and, of course, to whether it can finally help deliver justice.

Cooper in the Commons, Casey on the internet: The home secretary is expected to address MPs some time after 3.30 p.m., with the timing depending on the order of statements and whether the speaker grants any urgent questions. Once she sits down, the Casey audit — looking at the scale and nature of gang-based exploitation — will be published in full.

The expectation is … that the widely respected crossbench peer’s near 200-page report will be shocking and damning for the British state and its institutions — in much the same way as previous inquiries and reports on this issue. Saturday’s Times wrote that it was expected to warn the PM that white British girls who were targeted were “institutionally ignored for fear of racism” … and that Downing Street was concerned the report’s publication would lead to civil unrest similar to last summer’s riots. Starmer said he accepted the need for an inquiry after reading every page of the audit.

The obvious question: Why did it take reading the Casey audit to convince Starmer of the need for a full national inquiry, something opposition parties had been calling on for months (and that Labour whipped its MPs to vote against back in January)? In his Sun column, Harry Cole sets out the case for the prosecution: “Plenty in government saw an inquiry as not just the right thing to do, but a political no-brainer, given their hand would be forced eventually.” The Mail and Express splash on a similar point, while Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp — who served in the previous government which also delivered little justice for the victims — will be saying much the same on the morning round.

Case for the defense: Starmer himself insisted Saturday that Casey did not believe there was a “real need” for another national inquiry when she began the audit, before changing her mind later. Officials had long insisted too that the more important thing was for the government to implement the recommendations of previous inquiries, and for the government-backed local inquiries in certain areas to bear fruit. Ministers will say today that a failure to act on previous findings has led to a lost decade for justice.

What we know so far about the inquiry: The probe being announced today will oversee those local investigations — and will also have the power to trigger new ones, including in local authorities resistant to that. It will have the power to compel people to give evidence, and on Casey’s recommendation will be time-limited. One government source tells the Mail’s Jason Groves that they don’t want “another seven-year inquiry” like the Jay report.

Plus: Cooper is also announcing a new National Crime Agency-led police operation to reopen more than 800 grooming gang cases that were previously not progressed. The Home Office says a new National Policing Operation will be launched to bring together national and local policing to respond to child sexual exploitation.

TWO DECADES OF SHAME: Sky News’ Alix Cuthbertson has one of the most comprehensive round-ups of the how this latest scandal of state failure unfolded — starting in 2001, when names of taxi drivers who allegedly picked up girls from care homes in Rotherham to abuse them were first passed to the police and council … 11 men were convicted of offenses connected with the sexual exploitation of children in Derbyshire in 2010 … Times journalist Andrew Norfolk reported on Rotherham in early 2011 … convictions were made between 2012 and 2018 for grooming gangs in Rochdale and Oldham, Telford, Bristol, Huddersfield and Oxford … the 2014 report by Alexis Jay found 1,400 children were sexually abused between 1997 and 2013 by predominantly British-Pakistani men …

There’s more: A report published by Casey in 2015 found Rotherham council had a bullying, sexist culture of silencing whistleblowers … the 2022 Independent Inquiry into Child Sexual Abuse by Jay ruled police and councils downplayed the scale of the problem … and then Rishi Sunak set up the grooming gangs task force in 2023.

Enter Labour … and Elon Musk: The scandal became more prominent than ever at the start of the year after tech billionaire Elon Musk accused Keir Starmer and Home Office Minister Jess Phillips of failing children. The Tesla boss said Starmer was “complicit” in the failure of authorities when he was director of public prosecutions, and accused Phillips of being a “rape genocide apologist” after she rejected calls from Oldham council for a government inquiry. A few eyes in government will linger warily on Musk’s X feed today — even if he’s much less influential in the White House than he was in January.

TALK OF THE TEAROOM

ON THE HOME FRONT: Three other hot-button issues that have been dominating the chats of Labour MPs will all become big, big deals this week. Expect plenty of chatter in the tearoom and on the WhatsApp groups today as Westminster returns from the weekend.

First up … is Tuesday’s free vote on decriminalizing abortion in England and Wales, which is shaping up to be fractious — including between the “pro” camps. Word among MPs is that Speaker Lindsay Hoyle may only select one of two rival amendments by Labour MPs for a vote, POLITICO’s Dan Bloom texts in (the Telegraph’s Charles Hymas hears this too). Hoyle will reveal his decision on Tuesday. Until then, there’s a battle to show which “pro” camp has the most support.

The score so far: At the last update, Tonia Antoniazzi’s NC1 amendment had 176 names, compared to 113 for Stella Creasy’s NC20 (several MPs have signed both). A group of abortion providers, including the British Pregnancy Advisory Service, which backs Antoniazzi, wrote to MPs last week urging them to “remove their names” from Creasy’s amendment.

The actual policy: NC1 would disapply key criminal abortion offenses for “a woman acting in relation to her own pregnancy” … while NC20 would repeal certain abortion-related criminal laws altogether (for pregnant women and doctors) in favor of a new framework.

Needless to say … this is complex and vexed, with claims and counterclaims about what each amendment will mean, including for at-home abortion pills. Tory veteran Edward Leigh commissioned a legal opinion (seen by Hymas) which argues that either amendment would mean a woman no longer commits a criminal offence by having an abortion at home, right up to birth, for any reason including the sex of the child. Antoniazzi and Creasy, naturally, argue there are safeguards and it’s about ending prosecutions of vulnerable women. They put their individual cases here.

AND THE VERY NEXT DAY: A welfare reform bill containing the cuts that have been so controversial with Labour MPs is expected to be published Wednesday. There won’t be a vote at this stage … but MPs feeling rebellious will finally have the full details of what they’ll be expected to hold their nose for at the second reading vote about two weeks later.

For what it’s worth: Starmer himself, speaking to reporters on his way to the G7, suggested there won’t be any concessions despite wide expectations of a decent-sized Labour rebellion when the time comes. “We need to do reform and we will be getting on with that reform when the bill comes … we have got to reform it and that is what we intend to do,” Starmer said. Tough talk or not, we’ve all seen what can happen to such suggestions from the PM once the pressure hits.

This won’t quell any rebellious feelings: The Lib Dems have done some analysis of a government answer to a PQ which shows that up to 1.3 million people across England and Wales claiming Personal Independence Payments will lose at least some of the payment under Labour’s plan to revise the rules for the non-work related benefit. Deprived areas would be hit the worst. The Guardian’s Peter Walker writes it up.

SKIP FORWARD ANOTHER TWO DAYS … and the assisted dying bill faces its crucial third reading vote in the Commons. The persistent claims that many MPs have changed their mind on the bill will finally be fully tested. ITV has a tracker that suggests it’s gonna be hella close.

But but but: Fifty Labour MPs — who appear to be firmly in the anti-column — have launched a last-ditch effort to try and delay the vote. They wrote to Commons Leader Lucy Powell to ask her to intervene and postpone the third reading vote to allow more scrutiny, pointing to the lack of time to vote on all amendments tabled at report stage. The Indy’s David Maddox got the letter first. The bill’s sponsor, Kim Leadbeater, has consistently argued that her bill has received more time in parliament than some government bills.

ALSO EXERCISING SOME MPs: The PLP will vote on the standing orders governing MPs at today’s 5 p.m. meeting, Playbook’s Bethany Dawson writes, after the party put forward changes to the rule book. It might sound techy … but as my colleague Dan Bloom reported back in April, not everyone was delighted.

What we know: The rules, if passed, are set to make it much harder to wiggle out of campaigning visits (as reported by LabourList), and could remove an MP’s “right to be heard” (i.e. speak to the parliamentary committee of the PLP) if they have the whip suspended or withdrawn in certain circumstances. One up-to-speed MP tells Bethany the party has not accepted proposals to pay for campaign travel costs for MPs, or offer flexible working — which you could say is a bit awkward with the Employment Rights Bill moving through the house.

Sounding off: A different Labour MP says the changes, especially those which would limit the “right to be heard,” are “a way of [the party] clearing the decks of people they don’t like.” It would “make room for people who are mates of the right people” at the next round of candidate selections, they added. Though to be fair, three other MPs said they weren’t bothered by the changes. Watch for more grumpiness to emerge if full details emerge when the new standing orders are, as most expect, passed by Labour MPs.

TODAY IN WESTMINSTER

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: Building bridges — literally. Rachel Reeves is touting a new £1 billion fund for repairing creaking bridges and struggling tunnels as the government starts to trail its 10-year infrastructure strategy, coming later this week. The chancellor has a visit to the northeast, where she’ll do some local and regional media from 11 a.m., while her junior Treasury minister Emma Reynolds — dispatched to Scotland to talk up its financial services industry — has the morning round.

That, x 725: The FT’s George Parker and Gill Plimmer have a preview of that infrastructure plan, writing that it will be to the tune of £725 billion over the next decade. Despite that lengthy ole timeframe, they hear the chancellor’s priority is to accelerate projects that bring quick results, which is probably a good idea politically given the, err, polling situation.

Talking of long-term plans: Health Secretary Wes Streeting is promoting some wares from his NHS 10-year plan — which isn’t coming in full until next month. Today, he announces that millions of patients will be granted direct access to clinical trials via an expanded NHS app.

METREWELI, BLAISE METREWELI: Starmer has appointed the first ever female MI6 spy chief while in Canada — veteran spook Blaise Metreweli. No. 10 announced Sunday she will take over as the chief of the Secret Intelligence Service and therefore be known as “C” (not “M,” as Ian Fleming would have you believe). She used to be “Q” in MI6, for those who know their Bond lingo.

GETTING WARMER: China is considering lifting the sanctions imposed on MPs and peers in 2021, the Guardian’s Eleni Courea reports. A Chinese embassy spokesperson said Beijing values its relationship with Britain and “U.K.-China relations are showing a positive momentum.”

CAN’T COMPLAIN: MPs will be asked to approve changes to parliament’s independent complaints and grievance scheme (ICGS) later, setting up a new board to oversee its work and strengthening aspects of the way bullying and harassment claims are handled, my colleague Esther Webber writes in. Tory MP Christopher Chope has (unsurprisingly) tabled amendments which would reduce some protections for complainants and give MPs more power over the complaints system, also backed by Conservative Deputy Chief Whip Joy Morrissey.

Still to come: Behind the scenes, some Labour MPs have queried what happened to another key recommendation for improving standards in parliament: enabling the ICGS to handle complaints made to political parties. Esther hears that work is continuing separately on this, with Labour expected to take it forward even if other parties decide not to.

COURT CIRCULAR: Patrick Spencer, the MP for Central Suffolk and North Ipswich, who lost the Conservative whip in May, is set to appear in Westminster Magistrates’ Court charged with two counts of sexual assault that allegedly took place at London’s Groucho club in August 2023. Spencer’s lawyers said he “categorically denies the charges” and intends to “defend the allegations robustly in court,” the BBC reports.

MR. WORLDWIDE: Financial Conduct Authority chief executive Nikhil Rathi is off to Shanghai for the Lujiazui Forum, China’s annual financial policy conference. He will meet with counterparts from Chinese regulators and industry.

IN MEMORIAM: The funeral of journalist and former MEP Patrick O’Flynn is being held at Mortlake Crematorium, Kew, just after midday. Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage will give a eulogy, Playbook hears.

REPORTS OUT TODAY: Glasgow could fall behind England’s major cities unless it has a devolution deal and a directly-elected city region mayor, according to the Centre for Cities.

HOUSE OF COMMONS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with education questions … a motion on the Independent Complaints and Grievance Scheme (led by Leader of the House Lucy Powell) … a general debate on Windrush Day 2025 (Labour MP Helen Hayes) … and a motion on the Scottish Affairs Committee (Labour MP Jessica Morden). Labour MP Irene Campbell has the adjournment debate on phasing out animal experiments in medical research.

HOUSE OF LORDS: Sits from 2.30 p.m. with questions on grassroots interfaith movements in Israel, workforce gaps in adult social care and the defence industrial base … and it’s Day Nine of the committee stage of the Employment Rights Bill.

BEYOND THE M25

PLANNING AHEAD: Scottish First Minister John Swinney will deliver a 9.30 a.m. speech (followed by a Q&A and huddle) at Glasgow’s Queen Elizabeth University Hospital, where he will pledge a “national project of renewal” for Scotland’s public services. Swinney has a second speech on Tuesday, where he’s expected to say Scottish independence is key to achieving Scotland’s goals for 2050, the National’s Laura Pollock reports.

INDIA CRASH LATEST: The death toll from the Air India plane crash in Ahmedabad on Thursday has now risen to 270, the BBC reports.

MINNESOTA SUSPECT CAUGHT: The man suspected of shooting two Democratic lawmakers and their spouses in Minnesota was caught overnight, AP reports, bringing to an end a nearly two-day search.

Targeted attack: Democratic State Representative Melissa Hortman and her husband, Mark, were killed in their home in the Minneapolis suburbs on Saturday. Governor Tim Walz called it a “politically motivated assassination.” State Senator John Hoffman, also a Democrat, and his wife were shot and wounded at their home.

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MEDIA ROUND

Economic Secretary to the Treasury Emma Reynolds broadcast round: LBC (7.50 a.m.) … Sky News (7.15 a.m.) … Times Radio (8.10 a.m.).

Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp broadcast round: BBC Breakfast (7.10 a.m.) … Times Radio (7.45 a.m.) … GB News (8 a.m.) … Sky News (8.15 a.m.) … LBC (8.50 a.m.) … Talk (9.05 a.m.).

Also on Nick Ferrari at Breakfast: Labour peer and former Defence Secretary John Hutton (7.10 a.m.) … independent MP Rupert Lowe (8.10 a.m.).

Also on GB News Breakfast: Former Surrey Police and Crime Commissioner Kevin Hurley (7.30 a.m.).

Also on Times Radio Breakfast: Broadcaster and former EHRC Chair Trevor Phillips (7.05 a.m.) … Israeli special trade and innovation envoy Fleur Hassan-Nahoum (8 a.m.) … former Defence Secretary Grant Shapps (8.45 a.m.).

Also on Sky News Breakfast: Former Greater Manchester Detective Constable and whistleblower Maggie Oliver (8.45 a.m.).

Also on LBC News: Labour MP Helena Dollimore (7.45 a.m.).

Politics Live (BBC Two 12.15 p.m.): Labour MP and Foreign Affairs Select Committee Chair Emily Thornberry … Shadow Science Secretary Alan Mak … Lib Dem MP Calum Miller … former Conservative SpAd Salma Shah.

TODAY’S FRONT PAGES

POLITICO UK: European leaders clamor to be the G7’s Trump whisperer.

Daily Express: Say sorry for delay in sex gangs probe.

Daily Mail: Starmer in full retreat over grooming gangs.

Daily Mirror: World crisis.

Daily Star: Costa Bravo.

Financial Times: Israel and Iran step up retaliatory strikes.

Metro: You’ll pay a heavy price.

The Daily Telegraph: Trump vetoed plan to kill Iran leader.

The Guardian: Israel and Iran broaden war as G7 leaders seek ceasefire.

The Independent: Britons told not to travel to Israel as fighting intensifies.

The i Paper: RAF on standby to defend Israel as conflict with Iran escalates.

The Times: Trump says ‘full might’ of US ready for conflict.

LONDON CALLING

WESTMINSTER WEATHER: Sun and some clouds. High 26C, low 17C.

HOW DOES YOUR MP SPEND THEIR WEEKEND? Labour MP Rosena Allin-Khan performed in her new band, aptly named Parliament of Soul, at the Furzedown Fun Day on Saturday. The set list included Aretha Franklin, Nina Simone, James Brown, Amy Winehouse and Adele.

JOB ADS: PA is hiring a parliamentary reporter … the BBC is hiring a political correspondent to cover the nations and regions.

WRITING PLAYBOOK PM: Emilio Casalicchio.

WRITING PLAYBOOK TUESDAY MORNING: Andrew McDonald.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY TO: No. 10 Director of Strategic Communications James Lyons … Caithness, Sutherland, and Easter Ross MP Jamie Stone … Lancaster and Fleetwood MP Cat Smith … Greater Lincolnshire Mayor Andrea Jenkyns … former SNP MP Richard Thomson … former Meon Valley MP Flick Drummond … Labour peer and former Shadow Attorney General Shami Chakrabarti … former Home Office Permanent Secretary Matthew Rycroft … retired Tory peer John Astor … Tory peer Howard Flight.

PLAYBOOK COULDN’T HAPPEN WITHOUT: My editors Zoya Sheftalovich, Dan Bloom and Alex Spence, diary reporter Bethany Dawson and producer Dean Southwell.

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