Israel-Iran conflict heightens importance of G7 gathering

Hello and welcome to the working week.

The gathering of most of the world’s most powerful nations for the G7 summit in Kananaskis, Alberta, was supposed to focus on international trade and pushing US President Donald Trump’s administration to continue supporting Ukraine. Israel and Iran have disrupted that agenda, but it has perhaps heightened the importance of this gathering amid the Canadian pine forests.

Trump holds the most sway over Israel, with Washington the country’s biggest financial donor. Other leaders such as Canada’s Mark Carney and the UK’s Sir Keir Starmer are likely to urge caution, though their own relationship with Israel has frayed in recent weeks over the Netanyahu government’s continued refusal to allow in additional aid to Gaza. For more on what to expect over the coming days, read this.

Over in Europe, ministers in Brussels are expected to set out legal measures to end the import of the last vestiges of Russian fossil fuels into the EU. Since Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, EU countries have paid more than €200bn to Russia for fuel. Coal and oil imports have had sanctions imposed on them and gas should be phased out by 2027. The announcement, however, is unlikely to include plans to wean the bloc off a smaller but far more tricky reliance: Russian nuclear technology.

Corporate and economic data is undergoing a summer lull this week, but the central bankers will be busy with a triple run of rich economy rate announcements. The monetary policy committees at the Bank of Japan, US Federal Reserve and the Bank of England vote on whether to move their base rates on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday respectively.

The Fed is expected to hold borrowing costs at between 4.25 per cent and 4.5 per cent, in anticipation of further rises in inflation due to Trump’s tariffs feeding into consumer and producers prices — despite these being yet to appear in the data. Markets are pricing in two US rate cuts by the end of the year, with the first arriving in September or October.

For the UK and Japan, the monetary policy decisions will come amid inflation updates. The Bank of Japan will make its rate decision ahead of the official inflation update on Friday. The core inflation rate climbed at its fastest rate in more than two years in April, and the expectation is that prices will rise more than expected this time, possibly prompting discussions about raising interest rates if global trade tensions ease. However, the BoJ’s benchmark rate is likely to be held at 0.5 per cent this time.

Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee members, who split three ways last month when the majority voted to cut the benchmark rate to 4.25 per cent, have made it clear that they see a slowdown in wage growth as the key to further monetary loosening. But perhaps not now. Despite the recent rise in the unemployment rate the MPC is almost certain to hold off on any change this time. If you want more comment and data on inflation and interest rate movements, the FT has a handy tracker.

The corporate news run is limited, partly because of the US financial markets being closed for Juneteenth on Thursday. TikTok is likely to get another reprieve from the threatened US ban from Thursday — Trump said as much in an interview with NBC. More details on the rest of the announcements below.

One more thing . . . 

This Sunday we have a date with time. On June 22 1675, King Charles II issued a warrant authorising the construction of “a small observatory within our royal park at Greenwich”. Three hundred and fifty years later I think we can all agree that this British infrastructure project, designed by Sir Christopher Wren no less, was one of the monarchy’s better ideas. If you haven’t had a chance to visit, the FT’s Globetrotter section will take you on a virtual tour of Britain’s original time machine.

What do you plan to do with the passing hours this week? Email me at jonathan.moules@ft.com or, if you are reading this from your inbox, hit reply, and have a good week.

Key economic and company reports

Here is a more complete list of what to expect in terms of company reports and economic data this week.

Monday

• Competition Appeal Tribunal hearing expected for the case of Blur drummer Dave Rowntree, who is leading a class action law suit against the Performing Right Society for allegedly misallocating hundreds of millions of pounds in music royalties for songwriters

• Tjeerd Jegen becomes B&M European Value Retail chief executive.

• Opec Monthly Oil Market Report

• China: May retail sales, industrial output and house price index data

• UK: Rightmove June house price index

Tuesday

• FT Women in Business Summit (online). Register here.

• IEA Oil Market Report

• Japan: interest rate decision

• US: May industrial production figures

• Results: Ashtead Q4, Capita pre-close trading update, Jabil Q3, John Wiley Q4, Kenedix Office Investment Q4, La-Z-Boy Q4, Lennar Q2, RWS Holdings HY

Wednesday

• David Bailey, executive director, prudential policy, at the Bank of England speaks at Risk.net Live Europe on ‘Innovation and growth: the PRA’s approach to competitiveness’

• Brazil: interest rate decision

• EU: May harmonised indices of consumer prices (HICP) inflation rate data

• Germany: Q1 producer price index (PPI) inflation rate data

• UK: May consumer price index (CPI) and PPI inflation rate data

• US: interest rate decision

• Results: AO World FY, GMS Q4, Korn Ferry Q4, Speedy Hire FY

Thursday

• 30th anniversary of London’s Alternative Investment Market (Aim) for smaller, growing companies

• Australia: May labour force data

• UK: interest rate decision

• US: Juneteenth National Independence Day. Financial markets closed

• Results: Cordiant Digital Infrastructure FY, NCC HY, Syncona FY, Urban Logistics Reit FY, Whitbread Q1 trading update, XPS Pensions FY

Friday

• China: interest rate announcement

• EU: European Central Bank Economic Bulletin

• Germany: May PPI of industrial products inflation rate data

• Japan: May CPI inflation rate data

• South Korea: May PPI inflation rate data (AM local time)

• UK: May public sector finances data. Also, May retail sales figures for Great Britain and UK tax receipts

• US: Conference Board May leading indicators report

• Results: Accenture Q3, Berkeley FY, CarMax Q1, Darden Restaurants Q4, Kroger Q1

World events

Finally, here is a rundown of other events and milestones this week.

Monday

• Canada: G7 Summit continues in Kananaskis, Alberta, concluding tomorrow

• Denmark: International Conference on the Science of Science and Innovation begins in Copenhagen, discussing the dynamics of scientific research. The event, involving experts from business and academia, runs until Wednesday.

• UK: King Charles attends a service at Windsor Castle for National Garter Day, celebrating the Order of the Garter, founded in 1348 by Edward III

Tuesday

• Philippines: Circular Economy Forum 2025, a two-day event at the Asian Development Bank in Manila to discuss reducing plastic pollution.

• UK: Royal Ascot horse-race meeting begins. The event was founded by Queen Anne in 1711, with the first four-day June meeting taking place in 1768. Also, in London, the 257th Royal Academy of Arts Summer Exhibition begins, running until August 17

Wednesday

• Russia: Vladimir Putin will welcome attendees to the three-day 28th St Petersburg International Economic Forum, boasting participants from 137 countries and provinces

• UK: 33rd Raindance Film Festival, the annual celebration of independent cinema, begins in London. The festival closes on June 27 with the international premiere of The Academy, starring Maja Bons

Thursday

• UK: Chatham House’s 10th London conference, a flagship event involving speakers from government, business and the media to discuss global governance in a world without rules

• US: TikTok ban is (again) due to come into force, with its owner, Chinese internet company ByteDance, required to either shut the app down or sell it

Friday

• France: Paris Air Show opens to the public, running until Sunday

• Luxembourg: Economic and Financial Affairs Council meets to discuss expansion of the euro area and the EU’s response to the Ukraine conflict among other items

Saturday

• Summer solstice commemorations, in which crowds gather at sites such as Stonehenge in the British county of Wiltshire to witness sunrise

• UK: London Climate Action Week kicks off with a series of events in the British capital. The event is now in its seventh year

Sunday

• 350th anniversary of King Charles II ordering the building of the Royal Observatory on a hill in London’s Greenwich Park

• UK: Windrush Day, marking the anniversary of the arrival in 1948 of HMT Empire Windrush, one of the first ships to carry West Indian migrants to Britain during the postwar period