Donald Trump declared a questionable “national energy emergency” when he entered the White House. Soon, he may have one for real.
The president promised his America would “drill, baby drill” to new levels of prosperity by making the most of its reserves of oil and gas.
Mr Trump has now axed hundreds of billions in tax breaks and grants for low-carbon power and clean energy research and given them instead to fossil fuel investments.
Construction continues on Revolution Wind but the project is not yet connected to the grid. Pic: Reuters
There’s no better example than Revolution Wind, one of the largest offshore renewable energy projects in America.
Nearly 80% complete, the White House ordered an immediate halt.
When we visited, the massive 200m-wide turbines were going round – a temporary injunction has allowed construction to continue – but they’re not yet connected to the grid.
As long as Mr Trump is in power, it’s not certain they’ll ever be.
The future of other major wind and solar developments is also in doubt, as is more than $100bn (£75bn) in clean energy investment.
There’s less doubt about the fossil fuel business however. The industry is getting what it asked for after backing Mr Trump’s re-election.
US energy secretary Chris Wright and many key White House staff and advisers are former fossil fuel industry insiders.
Analysis for Sky News, by Global Witness, reveals that since the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015, US oil and gas production has grown five times faster than the average of the world’s next largest producers.
An increase that really took off during Mr Trump’s first presidency.
The analysis of company data goes on to reveal how US oil and gas production is now forecast to continue growing – by 2035 to double that of its next closest rival, Russia.
“Instead of reducing investment in dirty oil and gas, the principal drivers of climate breakdown, the US has doubled down on fossil fuels, ramping up production,” said Patrick Galey, of Global Witness.
A fact that would probably be music to the president’s ears and to many conservative Americans who voted for him.
US oil and gas production is forecast to grow to double that of Russia’s by 2035
Mr Trump’s “energy emergency” was perhaps a predictable response to the “climate emergency” invoked by his political rivals.
The only problem is, apart from accelerating global warming, his energy plan is on course to make America worse off.
‘US energy demand to grow 25%’
For the first time in years, US electricity demand has been going up. It is driven in part by a race to build power-hungry data centres – further encouraged by Mr Trump’s aim for American supremacy in AI.
Demand is rising and renewable energy is the quickest, cheapest way to meet it.
Data centres require vast amounts of power. Pic: Reuters
President Trump has championed supremacy in AI – backing investments in and clearing red tape for massive energy-hungry data centres.
After declining, then remaining stable for years, US energy demand is now forecast to grow 25% by 2030, according to analysis by ICF International.
But where will all the electricity come from?
We went to Mitsubishi Power, which makes state-of- the-art gas turbines for power stations at its factory outside Savannah, Georgia.
Demand for new turbines has never been greater, according to Bill Newsom, the US CEO. Wait times for new turbines is now double what it was just two years ago.
Mitsubishi makes gas turbines for power stations at its factory outside Savannah, Georgia
And while America will need gas to meet rising demand – it’s twice as clean as coal and provides “baseload” power that renewable energy grids can’t yet match – it can’t be built fast enough.
American businesses, including AI, will likely suffer because they can’t get the power they need.
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US consumers – who Mr Trump promised lower bills – will end up paying more because he also made renewable energy more expensive.
And that’s to say nothing of the impact on carbon emissions.
The speed of transition being called for to meet the 1.5C Paris target was always going to be very expensive, as countries like the UK are finding out.
But by fighting one “emergency” with another, Mr Trump risks making Americans – and the climate – worse off.
