Why China won’t mind a closure of the Strait of Hormuz

As the U.S. rained bombs and missiles on Iran’s nuclear sites on Saturday — entering the war between Israel and Iran — Beijing appears to be standing firm in its support of its long-standing ally in Tehran.

However, its support will be tempered by its limited heft as a peace broker in the region, and potential upside if oil chokepoints squeeze the U.S. more than they hurt Beijing.

Beijing has drawn closer to Iran in recent years, with the two countries cooperating regularly on military exercises and signing a 25-year strategic partnership in economic, military and security cooperation in 2021.

Iran’s population of nearly 91 million, far more than Israel’s 9.8 million people, coupled with its abundant crude oil reserves, made it a natural partner in China’s Belt and Road initiative, which the Global Times, a Beijing government mouthpiece, described as a way to “counter U.S. hegemony.”

China’s primary economic interest lies in its access to Iranian oil and the Strait of Hormuz, which is one of the most important trade routes for global crude oil flows.

Some 20 million barrels per day of crude oil, or a fifth of global consumption, flowed through the strait in 2024, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Half of Beijing’s oil imports moved through the key route — using a system of workarounds to bypass Western banks, shipping services and yuan-denominated transactions to avoid triggering sanctions.

China will likely keep its “hands off Iran in any case,” said Neo Wang, lead China economist and strategist at Evercore ISI, due to its limited influence over Israel and its strategic calculus on Washington’s intervention.

Beijing is embroiled in a trade war with the U.S. and may find value in any chaos in the Middle East, which “would become a bigger distraction to Washington,” Wang added.

China pledged to support Iran in “safeguarding its national sovereignty” shortly after it was attacked by Israel on June 12, which Beijing condemned as a “violation of Iran’s sovereignty, security and territorial integrity.”

But despite that initial show of support for Iran, Beijing’s rhetoric has shifted to become more measured, short of denouncing Israel’s military actions but focused on brokering dialogue and a ceasefire.

Chinese foreign minister Wang Yi told his Israeli counterpart in a phone call that Israel’s strikes were “unacceptable,” but refrained from remarks of “condemning” them in the call.

In another sign of Beijing dialing back its rhetoric on Iran, the Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said Monday that it is in the international community’s shared interest to maintain stability in the Persian Gulf and surrounding waterways.

Beijing has largely avoided “direct condemnation of Israel while remaining diplomatically aligned with Iran,” political risk consultancy firm Eurasia Group analysts said, as it seeks to “contain the tensions and prevent spillover of the conflict to the wider region — which could affect its economic and strategic interests.”

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday called for China to dissuade Iran from closing the Strait of Hormuz.

While many expect Beijing to do just that, some suggested a blockade of the chokepoint could be favorable for China, as it stands better prepared to absorb the blow than the U.S. and European Union, and that China could easily turn to other alternative oil sources.

According to the Energy Information Administration, China’s primary oil sources are Russia, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Iraq and Oman, although a sizable portion of Malaysia’s exports are actually relabeled or transferred from Iran.

Robin Brooks, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, said “China will be happy to see a big spike in oil prices if that destabilizes the U.S. and Europe.”

Echoing that view, Andrew Bishop, global head of policy research at Signum Global Advisors, said: “China may not be that irate at paying more for oil from other sources, if it means the U.S. suffers even more.”

Iran’s parliament Sunday backed the decision to close the strait, pending the final approval by its national security council. That sent the oil futures over 2% higher in early Asia hours. U.S. WTI crude rose more than 2% to $75.22 per barrel, while global benchmark Brent was up nearly 2% at $78.53 per barrel.

While China’s U.N. Ambassador Fu Cong had harsh words for the U.S. at a U.N. Security Council meeting on Sunday, Fu also singled out Israel and called for an immediate ceasefire and an end to the hostilities.

Although China appears to favor stability in the Middle East, it may benefit from U.S. involvement in the conflict.

The U.S. strikes on Iran “handed China an important talking point: It’s America, not China, that threatens the global order and peace,” said Shehzad Qazi, managing director of China Beige Book.

China may have hopes of acting as a peacemaker, building on its mediation of a peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023. Beijing hailed the reconciliation as a win for Chinese diplomacy and a sign that Beijing has emerged as a major power broker in the Middle East.

But Israel would likely be skeptical of China’s neutrality as a mediator because of its alignment with Iran and engagement with Hamas, an ally of Iran that attacked Israel in October 2023, and the possibility of angering the U.S., analysts said.

“China has neither offered to mediate the conflict nor offered Iran any material support. Xi wants to, and will, have his cake and eat it too,” said Qazi.