Whispers of a new world order

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The U.S. entering the Israel-Iran conflict over the weekend has dominated media headlines, but the rustlings this week at the “Summer Davos” conference in Tianjin, China, were more about navigating a future less intertwined with Washington.

A decade ago, goods, capital, tech and talent flowed between the so-called East and West; now it’s about flows between Global South countries, said Ben Simpfendorfer, Hong Kong-based partner at management consultancy Oliver Wyman.

“The mood [in Tianjin] reflects a changed world order. The Global South is more connected than ever.”

Global South loosely refers to less developed economies, especially countries outside the U.S. and European orbits. Think Southeast Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Middle East — all regions China has sought to develop trade and political relations with.

“There are 130 neutral countries that are willing to do business across geopolitical fractures and are looking for business, and many of them are run by leaders who are relatively internationalist … I do look forward to opportunities in the Global South,” said Aparna Bharadwaj, managing director at Global Advantage Practice at a WEF panel.

China, which has been deepening its relationship with the Global South, had its Premier Li Qiang urging more trade for “reshaping” the world order at the WEF forum on Wednesday.

“We could be moving to a world where Asia and the Middle East emerge as a new and compelling economic bloc that are still integrated to a degree with Europe and the United States but that integration fluctuates,” Simpfendorfer said.

Since 2007, the Swiss-based World Economic Forum has run a summer version of its Davos gathering in China, alternating between the cities of Tianjin and Dalian, both in the northern part of the country.

But as local Chinese governments have ramped up their own conferences and the overall economy has slowed, foreign businesses interested in China have not had to rely as much on Summer Davos matchmaking. Disruptions from the pandemic and U.S-China tensions have also taken their toll.

This year though, even otherwise quiet groups of attendees turned into slightly aggressive crowds to snag spots for select events including talks on artificial intelligence and the economic outlook.

Seats filled up fast for the release of WEF’s annual “Top 10 Emerging Technologies” report — now in its third year of collaboration with the Dubai Future Foundation. Previously, the report had been created by the forum with Scientific American.

Some prominent leaders took the opportunity to visit China. Singapore’s Prime Minister Lawrence Wong, Vietnam’s Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh and Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa Azín were among the top political leaders attending this year.

“The U.S. tariff shock has been a wake-up call for the Global South in general about the need to diversify,” Simpfendorfer said, citing recent conversations with businesses in Malaysia and Vietnam.

But he pointed out that it won’t be easy to shift from targeting one U.S. market to multiple Global South markets.

To attract trade partners, countries from Egypt to Vietnam to China are all trying to enhance their economic competitiveness.

“It’s a wake-up call for Chinese multinationals to build out genuinely international businesses,” Simpfendorfer said, adding that the learnings from the past two decades would no longer be a good guide for the next 20 years, given the transformational impact of artificial intelligence.

Egyptian Minister of Investment and Trade Hassan El Khatib told CNBC’s Chery Kang on the sidelines of the forum on Tuesday that the country aspires to be in the top 20 in business competitiveness by 2030, following a major reform program launched last year to spur private sector development.

He emphasized Egypt’s labor pool and engineering talent, and noted how the country was courting investors from around the world.

As U.S.-China tensions remain far from resolved, more countries may be keen to take the Chinese premier up on his invitation to reshape the world.

—  CNBC’s Bernice Ooi contributed to this report.

Johnson Chui, Head of Global Issuer Services at Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, talks about recent renewed interest in Hong Kong as a market, as it attracts a wave of foreign investors and IPOs. 

Eswar Prasad, professor at Cornell University and former head of IMF’s China division, talks about why both U.S. and China are feeling the pressure to “lower the temperature” on their trade relationship.

Joe Ngai, Chairman of McKinsey China, believes that corporates in China have shown resilience despite external threats including tariff uncertainties and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

China’s fiscal revenue growth stalls in May. The central government’s fiscal revenue grew just 0.1% in May from a year earlier, slowing from a 1.9% expansion in April. Non-tax revenue declined 2.2%, its first annual drop since 2014, while tax revenue saw a modest gain of 0.6% from a year earlier.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang urged not to turn trade into a political matter. He was speaking at the opening plenary of the World Economic Forum’s annual conference in China, often dubbed “Summer Davos.” The Chinese leader called on other countries to collaborate on trade and pledged to “make China a mega-sized consumption powerhouse.”

Beijing tempers criticism of Israel. China initially pledged to support Iran shortly after Israel’s attack on June 12. Despite that initial show of support for Iran, Beijing’s rhetoric has shifted to become more measured.

— Anniek Bao

Mainland China and Hong Kong stocks rose early Wednesday amid mixed trading in the region, as investors weighed a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, and fresh commentary from the U.S. Federal Reserve.

Mainland China’s CSI 300 was up 0.35%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index — which includes major Chinese companies — had gained 0.77% as of 12:20 p.m. local time.

June 24 to June 27: The Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, China’s top legislative body, meets to discuss a law on unfair competition, and review government spending.

June 26: The Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank holds the opening ceremony of its annual meeting after appointing a new president for a five-year term starting January; Xiaomi to reveal the price of its electric YU7 SUV

June 27: China industrial profits data for May

June 30: China’s official manufacturing PMI for June

July 1: Anniversary of the ruling Chinese Communist Party’s founding in 1921; Caixin Manufacturing PMI for June