What does Trump want in the Caribbean as US deploys warships?

First, the US deployed multiple warships to the Caribbean. Then, Donald Trump announced a deadly strike on a boat he said was carrying drugs.

What Washington has planned next is not entirely clear, but some analysts tell the BBC that the risk of escalation in the region is growing by the day.

Since the US president’s return to office in January, the Trump administration has steadily intensified its anti-drug-trafficking efforts in Latin America. As part of that, the US has seemingly centred on Venezuela – an effort that has led to the mobilisation of military forces from both countries in recent weeks.

After Tuesday’s bombing of a small vessel in the Caribbean that was allegedly travelling from Venezuela, officials in the US made it clear that military action in the region was not over – hinting at more operations that could target drug trafficking.

On Tuesday, President Trump released footage of the military strike in the Caribbean which he said showed the killing of 11 “narcoterrorists” from the Venezuelan Tren de Aragua gang who he said were aboard a small boat.

He said the vessel was carrying “massive amounts of drugs” and was heading toward the US. In the Oval Office, Trump accused the South American country of being “very bad, both in terms of drugs and sending some of the worst criminals anywhere in the world into our country”.

The move came weeks after the US announced a $50m (£37m) reward for any information leading to the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro – whose election to lead the country has been widely rejected by the international community – on drug-trafficking charges.

The analysts who spoke to the BBC suggested that Trump’s latest move could have more than one purpose in mind.

Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth told Fox News on Wednesday morning that US military activity in the area “won’t stop… with just this strike”.

It was a clear attempt to put pressure on Maduro, one commentator said.

The prior naval build-up was on a scale not seen in the region since 1965, according to Prof Alan McPherson, who specialises in US-Latin American relations at Temple University.

The Pentagon has so far deployed guided missile destroyers, the Iwo Jima amphibious group and a nuclear-powered submarine, along with P-8 intelligence planes and around 4,500 troops to the region.

The build-up “recalls the days of ‘gunboat diplomacy’ more than a century ago,” Prof McPherson said.

The Pentagon said the deployments aimed to help halt drug trafficking and the actions of criminals, and would aid the US pressure drug networks in the region.

But the US Navy might be hoping to strike more directly at Maduro or encourage an internal revolt in the Venezuelan army, Prof McPherson said – though he acknowledged that “neither of those would require such a flotilla”.

“Whatever the case, clearly, the Trump administration wants to intimidate the (Venezuelan) regime.”

Stephen Donehoo, a former US military intelligence official specialising in Latin America, told the BBC that he has “never seen such a large deployment of naval forces in the (US) Southern Command” region.

Still, it was “not a force to invade a foreign country,” Mr Donehoo explained.

“There could be other missions that they have, much more precise,” such as “armed drone missions flying over Venezuelan airspace,” he added.

Maduro has rejected US claims he is directly involved in drug trafficking, which he considers a pretence to overthrow his government. He has also said he would mobilise 4.5 million members of the country’s militia in response to the US deployment of the war ships.

But analysts say Maduro’s number is wildly inflated – and that the militia is barely trained and is usually only used to boost numbers at political rallies and parades, so is not a fighting force.

Maduro also vowed that Venezuela would immediately “declare a republic in arms” if it was attacked.

US officials have presented the strike as an effort to halt the flow of drugs to the US – which has been a key mission of Trump’s second term.

But it was an unusual operation, according to Rebecca Bill Chavez, head of the Inter-American Dialogue think tank in Washington.

“If this (the US movements) is a counter-narcotics deployment, this is unlike any counter-narcotics deployment I’ve ever seen,” Ms Chavez, a former US undersecretary of state for the Western Hemisphere, told the BBC.

US maritime anti-drug operations are usually led by the Coast Guard, working with regional partners to intercept suspicious vessels.

It is unclear whether the US was in contact with other Caribbean officials about Tuesday’s strike beforehand.

“The risk of escalation at sea is real,” Ms Chavez said.

The president himself told reporters in the Oval Office that “you see the bags of drugs all over the boat”, referring to video footage which he said showed the strike.

Venezuela is often used as a stop off for transporting cocaine – but the drug is mostly transported to the US via the Pacific Ocean rather than the Caribbean, according to a 2023 UN report.

Officials have so far not explained how they determined those on board the boat targeted on Tuesday were members of Tren de Aragua, or what kind of drugs they believe the vessel was transporting.

The military strike marked the strongest action the Trump administration has taken against drug trafficking – and is something that legal experts say may have violated international human rights and maritime law.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio defended the operation, and indicated the US could take similar action again in the future.

“What will stop them is when you blow (drug traffickers) up,” he said during a visit to Mexico, lamenting that previous US efforts to stem the trade had not been effective.

Ms Chavez says the US likely recognises it would be a “grave mistake” to launch any military intervention in Venezuela. It would be met with armed resistance in the country and also be unpopular back at home – as it would clash with Trump’s professed non-intervention stance.

Undersecretary of State Christopher Landau appeared to hint at the military escalation and reasoning behind the moves in an interview for Donald Trump Jr’s podcast in August.

“I think you’ll be seeing more actions in the coming days and weeks that will be sending messages, but ultimately the Venezuelan people have to rise up and claim their own freedom.”

“We can’t go around the world changing governments at our whim,” Landau said at the time.

Despite its tough stance against drug trafficking, the Trump administration has still found ways to work with the Maduro government.

Caracas has accepted migrants deported from the US, and the two countries reached a prisoner exchange agreement in July. Washington then allowed US oil company Chevron to resume work in Venezuela, a win for Maduro.

Those moves angered some Trump-supporting Venezuelans and Cubans living in the US who had hoped the president might toughen sanctions on the Left-wing governments of their countries.

With “these three Aegis destroyers moving south (and)… the Chevron shipments moving north”, many observers are getting mixed signals from the Trump administration, according to Ms Chavez.

“People are very confused about what is the real purpose behind” the US’s Caribbean escalation, she said.