Trump trade deal investment pledges are intentions, say partners, not gifts

President Donald Trump is taking a victory lap over the foreign investment pledges he has secured as part of several recent trade deals, variously describing the multi-billion dollar commitments as a “signing bonus” and “seed money” and a “gift.”

“If you look at Japan, we’re taking in $550 billion and that’s like a signing bonus that a baseball player would get,” Trump said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”

Of the European Union, he said, “They brought down their tariffs, so they paid $600 billion and because of that, I reduced their tariffs from 30% down to 15%.”

“They gave me $600 billion, and that’s a gift,” he continued. “They gave us $600 billion that we can invest in anything we want.”

He also said the 27-member bloc economic bloc would buy, “$750 billion worth of our energy.”

Last month, Trump likened the trade deal with Japan, which includes a pledge of $550 billion in investment, to “seed money.”

“Japan is putting up $550 billion in order to lower their tariffs a little bit,” Trump said. “They put up, as you could call it, seed money.”

As Trump casts the multibillion dollar investment pledges from U.S. trade partners as major victories, leaders on the other side of the deals offer very few details.

The pledges underscore a disconnect between how the president views his trade agreements and how countries on the other side of the negotiating table often see them.

One key question underpinning the investment promises is whether they could actually be enforced.

Thus far, the deals have largely been framework agreements, not binding agreements. And discrepancies linger over the specific investment commitments.

The White House, however, is warning that countries whose investment commitments do not come through could face retaliation from Washington.

“That is what our trading partners have agreed to, and the President reserves the right to adjust tariff rates if any party reneges on their commitments,” said a White House official who was granted anonymity in order to discuss still-evolving deals.

In a sign of the disconnect between the two trade partners, a fact sheet released by the White House after Trump announced a trade deal with the EU said that the bloc “will purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy and make new investments of $600 billion in the United States, all by 2028.”

But a parallel sheet released by the European Commission notes only an “interest” from European companies in “investing at least $600 billion” in the United States. It also mentions an intent to “procure US liquified natural gas, oil, and nuclear energy products with an expected offtake valued at $750 billion (ca. €700 billion) over the next three years.”

Moreover, the EU signaled last week that it does not have the authority to enforce the investments since they would come from the private sector, an area outside the European Commission’s purview.

“The European Union and her Member States have very limited capabilities to direct private actors to make these purchases and investments,” David Kleimann, a trade expert and senior research associate at ODI Europe, told CNBC.

“That’s why these commitments are – and can only be – merely aspirational.”

Tokyo similarly described its trade deal with Washington in different terms than those Trump used.

As part of the deal, the White House says that Japan “will invest $550 billion directed by the United States to rebuild and expand core American industries.”

Japan, on the other hand, says the deal involves a mix of investments and loan guarantees totaling a maximum of up to $550 billion, Bloomberg reports.

“Some people are saying Japan is simply handing over $550 billion,” Tokyo’s top trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa, said after the trade deal was announced. “But such claims are completely off the mark.”

In a further sign of Trump’s focus on investments as a central piece of negotiations, the president suggested last week that Seoul had made Washington an offer to “buy down” its proposed 25% tariff rate.

Trump said South Korea had agreed to invest $350 billion in the U.S., and as a result, it would face a 15% tariff on products, down from 25%.

Nonetheless, questions hang over the investment promise.

“There are still gaps between Seoul and Washington in how to structure the $350 billion joint investment fund,” said Choi Seok-young, former ambassador to the South Korean Permanent Mission in Geneva, according to the Korea JoongAng Daily.

“The Korean government needs to respond with clear principles and standard,” Choi said.

For South Korea, as for Japan and the EU, the investment commitments it made in a framework U.S. trade deal are not done deals; they’re just another piece of an ongoing negotiation.