The extreme rainfall and flash flooding that swept through central Texas in the early morning hours of July 4 left local officials and residents stunned by its sudden and deadly ferocity. At least 95 people were killed, including more than two dozen campers and counselors at Camp Mystic, along the banks of the Guadalupe River in Kerr County.
Many local residents say they did not receive any emergency alerts on their phones or did not understand the severity of the warnings they saw.
CBS News analysis shows there were 22 warnings sent by the National Weather Service for Kerr County and the Kerrville area, with escalating language about the urgency of the situation.
There were no alerts sent by local government officials in Kerr County or neighboring Bandera County, to its south; they were reliant on National Weather Service alerts.
A number of other weather service messages had been sent July 2-3 to western and central areas of the state about the risk of flooding, but none foresaw the 20 inches of rain that would drench some locations when storms converged with added moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, moving northwards from Mexico.
This timeline is based on CBS News analysis of data from real-time alerts kept by the the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which tracks all emergency alerts sent by the National Weather Service and local governments. (All times local, Central Daylight Time.)
Thursday, July 3
The National Weather Service issued several flood watches for counties in central Texas on Thursday, July 3, warning of the possibility of rain and flash flooding through Friday, but these were not emergency alerts.
11:41 p.m., Bandera County — NWS sends a warning about potentially “life threatening” flash flooding of creeks and streams for residents of central Bandera County, the neighboring county to the south of Kerr County and Camp Mystic. The message includes some standard NWS flash flooding language: “Turn around, don’t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood deaths occur in vehicles. Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the dangers of flooding. In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded roads. Find an alternate route.”
Friday, July 4
1:14 a.m., Bandera and Kerr Counties — This message, the first one for Kerr County, included some of the same standard NWS flash flooding language as the warning sent to Bandera about an hour and a half before.
1:53 a.m., Bandera County — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier first warning to Bandera County (but not Kerr).
3:35 a.m., Bandera and Kerr Counties — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to the two counties, but in the warning language it adds: “It is important to know where you are relative to streams, rivers, or creeks which can become killers in heavy rains. Campers and hikers should avoid streams or creeks.”
4:03 a.m., Bandera and Kerr Counties — This NWS message, covering the area that includes Camp Mystic, repeats much of the earlier message but is the first to add this more urgent wording: “This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!” and “Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation. Do not attempt to travel unless you are fleeing an area subject to flooding or under an evacuation order.”
4:03 a.m. — The National Weather Service in Austin/San Antonio issues a Flash Flood Emergency, stating: “At 403 AM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated thunderstorms producing heavy rain. Numerous low water crossings as well as the Guadalupe River at Hunt are flooding. Between 4 and 10 inches of rain have fallen. The expected rainfall rate is 2 to 4 inches in 1 hour. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring.”
5:34 a.m., Kerr County — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to Kerr County, which includes Camp Mystic. “This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for the Guadalupe River from Hunt through Kerrvile and Center Point. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!” and “Move to higher ground now! This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation.”
6:06 a.m., Bandera and Kerr Counties — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to both counties. It reads in part: “Local law enforcement reported numerous low water crossings flooded and major flooding occurring along the Guadalupe River with rescues taking place. Between 5 and 10 inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 2 inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already occurring. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for South-central Kerr County, including Hunt. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!”
6:27 a.m., Kerr County — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to Kerr County, saying “This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY” and “SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!”
The Guadalupe River reached its peak level of about 36 feet at around 7 a.m. Friday, July 4.
7:24 a.m., Kerr and Kendall Counties — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to Kerr County and neighboring Kendall County, to the east. It reads in part: “A large and deadly flood wave is moving down the Guadalupe River. Flash flooding is already occurring. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for THE GUADALUPE RIVER FROM CENTER POINT TO SISTERDALE. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!”
8:47 a.m., Kerr County — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to Kerr County.
9:04 a.m., Bandera and Kerr Counties — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to these two counties.
9:37 a.m., Kerr and Real Counties — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to Kerr County and adds Real County, its neighbor to the southwest.
10:06 a.m., Bandera and Kerr Counties — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning.
10:24 a.m., Kerr County — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning.
10:39 a.m., Bandera and Real Counties — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to Bandera County and Real County, but not Kerr.
11:28 a.m., Bandera and Kerr Counties — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to Kerr County and Bandera County.
11:38 a.m., Kerr County — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to Kerr County with new, more pressing language: “a large and deadly flood wave is moving down the Guadalupe River. Flash flooding is already occurring. This is a FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY for the Guadalupe River from Hunt through Kerrvile and Center Point. This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. SEEK HIGHER GROUND NOW!”
12:07 p.m., Kerr County — NWS sends a repeat of its earlier warning to Kerr County.
1:20 p.m., Kerr and Bandera Counties — NWS sends a repeat/update of its earlier warning to Kerr County and Bandera County.
1:24 p.m., Kerr and Kendall Counties — NWS sends a repeat/update of its earlier warning to Kerr County and Kendall County.
2:03 p.m., Kerr and Bandera Counties — NWS sends a repeat/update of its earlier warning to Kerr County and Bandera County.
2:12 p.m., Kerr County — NWS sends a repeat/update of its earlier warning to Kerr County.
3:23 p.m., Kerr and Kendall Counties — NWS sends a repeat/update of its earlier warning to Kerr County and Kendall County.
3:53 p.m., Kerr and Bandera Counties — NWS sends a repeat/update of its earlier warning to Kerr County and Bandera County.
3:56 p.m., Kerr County — NWS sends a repeat/update of its earlier warning to Kerr County.
