Business

Think you won’t live to 100? You might be wrong.

Who wants to live to 100? Not a lot of us, as it turns out.

America’s century club is getting larger, and reaching 100 is a realistic goal for a growing population of retirees. Longer life is a reward for improvements in exercise, diet and medical care.

Yet, it’s a club that only one in four Americans wants to join.

Nationwide Retirement Institute, a division of the Nationwide insurance and financial services company, surveyed more than 1,000 Americans to gauge their thoughts on living a really long time. Most of us, they found, approach the topic with a mix of wonder and fear.

Just 29% of adults said they want to live to 100. Among older workers, ages 55 to 65, only 23% voiced enthusiasm for the century club.

Most Americans see living to 100 as a blessing, rather than a burden, the survey found. But the thought of actually living that long invokes a long list of worries: Declining health. Loss of mobility. Outliving loved ones. Running out of money.

“A lot of people would say, ‘If I can live to 100 in good health, that’s amazing, but if I’m going to live to 100 and be in poor health for the last 10 years, I’m not sure I’m up for that,’” said Catherine Collinson, CEO of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies.

Think you won’t reach 100? Think again.

Centenarians are outliers in American retirement, but the odds might not be so long as you think.

An American man who retires in good health stands an 8% chance of reaching 100, according to research by the American College of Financial Services, released in May along with the Nationwide survey.

For a healthy female retiree, the chance of reaching 100 rises to 13%. For a healthy couple, there’s a 20% chance that one partner will make a century.

“If you’re a relatively healthy adult by the time you’re 60 or 65, you’re probably looking at 30 years of retirement,” said Kristi Martin Rodriguez, senior vice president of Nationwide Financial Marketing.

Life expectancy rises with age. At birth, an American can expect to live between 70 and 80 years. By the time you reach 70, however, your expected longevity rises to at least 85.

Most Americans underestimate the length of their retirement — in other words, how long they will live.

In a 2023 survey, the American College asked thousands of older adults how long a man of 65 could expect to live. Only 27% of respondents gave the correct answer: 20 years.

“I think a lot of people just look to their parents and their grandparents when they’re thinking about how long they’re likely to live,” said Michael Finke, professor of wealth management at the American College. “But the reality is, half of men smoked back in the 1950s and early 1960s. People are taking better care of themselves. Survival rates for cancer are higher now than they were even 20 years ago.”

Living to 100 will cost you

The reality of American longevity has dire implications for retirement planning.

The average over-50 worker expects to retire at 67, according to Transamerica research.

But the average worker actually retires at 62, according to survey data from Transamerica and the Employee Benefit Research Institute.

A worker who expects to retire by 67, and to die by 80, might plan for a 15-year retirement.

That would be a mistake. Going back to those longevity statistics: A man or woman who retires at 62 can expect to reach 83 or 86, respectively. That would be at least a 20-year retirement.

And that’s the average. When you plan for retirement, experts say, you should plan for every scenario, including the one in which you live to 100.

Many retirement planners assume a 30-year retirement. That span is the basis for the 4% rule: Plan to withdraw 4% of your retirement savings to cover your annual living expenses, adjusting the figure for inflation each year.

The 4% rule prompts many financial planners to suggest Americans should aim to save $1 million for retirement.

(Of course, millions of workers retire with much less, and many seem to be doing just fine.)

If a retirement stretches to 35 or 40 years, however, the 4% rule starts to fall apart.

“Let’s say you have a million dollars, and in the first year, you start taking out $40,000 to support your lifestyle,” Finke said, following the 4% rule. “A very high percentage of the time, you’re still going to have money in the bank after 30 years. But that drops very sharply after 35 years.”

Worried you might live to 100? Here are some expert tips on how to prepare.

Make a retirement plan

The easiest way to write a retirement plan is with a retirement planner, who will know all about longevity rates and the 4% rule and the 30-year (or longer) retirement horizon.

You can also do the work yourself. For a start, AARP and others offer retirement calculators.

“We ask how people have estimated their retirement savings needs, and if they have used a calculator, and most have not,” said Collinson of Transamerica.

Plan to work longer

Americans can claim Social Security at 62. But that’s pretty early, when you weigh the odds of living to 100.

Consider working longer, and claiming Social Security later. There’s a considerable financial reward for waiting until 70.

A Stanford University study found that delaying retirement by just three to six months has the same impact on retirement savings as raising your 401(k) contribution rate by a full percentage point for 30 years.