The UK and Keir Starmer need Trump’s state visit right now

The pomp and pageantry of U.S. President Donald Trump’s state visit to the U.K. are likely to offer a welcome distraction from the British government’s mounting troubles on the home front.

The visit, which kicks into full swing on Wednesday, when Trump and first lady Melania will be the guests of honor of King Charles III and Queen Camilla in Windsor, comes at a torrid time for British Prime Minister Keir Starmer.

In the last fortnight, Starmer’s Deputy Prime Minister and close ally Angela Rayner resigned after a house tax scandal, triggering a major cabinet reshuffle. Then, Starmer sacked the U.K.’s Ambassador to the U.S. Peter Mandelson over his links to disgraced financier Jeffrey Epstein.

Over 100,000 people attended a mass protest in central London last weekend to voice their anger over seemingly uncontrollable immigration figures, and there are growing rumblings among lawmakers in Starmer’s own Labour Party over his ability to lead the country.

Against this backdrop, Starmer will be looking to make the most of the state visit, laying out the full splendor that Trump, an Anglophile and admirer of the Royal family, seems to relish.

There’s no doubt that the U.K. is well placed to impress Trump and the first lady, as Britain flexes its “soft power” of ancient tradition and ceremony, as well as putting on events that showcase the “special relationship” between the transatlantic allies on a cultural and commercial level.

It’s not Trump’s first royal rodeo, as his first state visit came in 2019 when he was a guest of the late Queen Elizabeth II.

On Wednesday, the Trumps will be greeted with a royal salute at Windsor Castle by King Charles and Queen Camilla, followed by a carriage procession in Windsor — where security has been tightened ahead of the visit, with police teams searching and securing drains, gateways, roads and the procession route this week.

Later, the president will lay a wreath on the tomb of Queen Elizabeth II, which will be followed by a flyby of American F-35 military jets alongside the British Red Arrows. The day will end with a state banquet, during which both the king and president will make speeches.

Trade will take center stage on Thursday, with the president set to head to Chequers — the country house of sitting U.K. prime ministers — for a series of bilateral meetings with Starmer, trade officials and business leaders.

The U.K. was the first country to sign a trade deal with Trump and was handed a baseline 10% tariff on its exports to the States. London is now hoping to sign a spate of further deals with the president, with tech partnerships and energy on the agenda.

The U.K. will also look to finalize an agreement on lower tariffs on steel and aluminum exports. Britain escaped a 50% on its metals exports to the U.S. and was given a 25% levy, but it seeks to reduce this further with a deal on quotas regarding the amount of metals that can be exported to the U.S.

The prime minister and president will then give a joint press conference later on Thursday.

There’s no doubt that Starmer needs some respite from his domestic woes, and Trump might just be the man to provide it.

Labour and Starmer’s approval ratings are languishing in the doldrums. A YouGov poll taken on Sept.8 showed that 69% of those surveyed disapprove of the government and only 12% approve, with the rest undecided.

CNBC has reached out to Downing Street over the health of Starmer’s leadership and details of Trump’s state visit.

Labour’s fortunes in local elections next May will likely prove decisive for Starmer’s political future. The party’s misfortunes appear even greater in the context of its landslide victory in July last year, which delivered it a sizable majority in parliament.

“Labour is failing because Starmer is a lawyer not a leader, and the party lacks internal discipline. There is little point in a massive majority unless the Party has the will to exercise its majority by delivering tough policies effectively,” Bill Blain, market strategist and former investment banker, commented in his “Blain’s Morning porridge” newsletter on Monday.

Just how much notice Trump pays to Starmer’s poll ratings — and those of his upstart rival Nigel Farage, the leader of the populist right-leaning Reform UK — is uncertain, but the U.K. government will be mindful of making the most of Trump’s apparent natural bonhomie with Starmer.

Despite their political differences, Trump genuinely seems to actually like the British PM — and the U.K.

In June, when Trump was asked whether the U.K. would be shielded from higher tariffs, he responded: “The U.K. is very well protected. You know why? Because I like them. That’s their ultimate protection.”

That might be one thing the government can cling to in troubled times.