Scott Martin: Stay weather aware for strong to severe storms in Alabama this holiday weekend
THIS WEEKEND: For today, a stalled front remains the key player, keeping rain and storms in the forecast. A large area of elevated showers and thunderstorms will move in this morning, especially across north and north-central Alabama. Some of that activity may weaken by midday, but additional storms could develop in the afternoon, especially near outflow boundaries. If enough instability builds, some storms may become strong, with damaging winds and hail. Nearly all the state is under a marginal risk of severe weather for Saturday (level 1 out of 5), while a good chunk of central Alabama is under a slight risk (level 2), including Birmingham and Tuscaloosa. Highs will vary widely depending on clouds and rain, ranging from the lower 70s in the north to the mid 90s in the south.
Another round of storms may push in from the northwest early Sunday, possibly tied to an overnight mesoscale convective system from Oklahoma or Missouri. If the warm front lifts north of the Tennessee River, some surface-based storms could turn strong to severe by late morning or afternoon. Nearly all the northern half of the state is under a slight risk through the day, with nearly the rest of the state under a marginal risk for severe storms. Rain and thunderstorm chances stick around through the evening, with the exact severity depending on how far the front moves and how much instability recovers. Highs range from the upper 70s in the north to lower 90s in the south.
MEMORIAL DAY: On Monday, expect widespread rain and storms throughout the day. A cold front will approach from the northwest, but persistent clouds and earlier rain should limit severe potential. Still, pockets of heavy rain could lead to localized flooding, especially in areas that see repeated storms. Highs will be in the lower 80s in the north and lower 90s in the south.
THE WORK WEEK: The cold front weakens as it moves southeast on Tuesday. A few showers may linger, especially in northeast and central Alabama, but drier air will try to move in during the day. Rain chances will be lower. Expect highs from the upper 70s in the north to the lower 90s in the south. On Wednesday, clouds and occasional showers may still hang around as high pressure builds in slowly. It won’t be a washout, but it stays unsettled. Temperatures will be in the lower 80s in the north and lower 90s in the south. On Thursday, another weak disturbance may trigger a few pop-up showers or storms, mainly in the afternoon. Nothing widespread is expected, but we’ll still have moisture and modest instability to work with. Highs range from the upper 70s to lower 90s. A drier, quieter day looks possible on Friday, though confidence is still low. If the boundary finally washes out, we could see more sun. If not, some showers will be possible. Highs will be from the upper 70s in the north to upper 80s in the south.
For more weather news and information from James Spann, Scott Martin and other members of the James Spann team, visit AlabamaWx.
