June 16, 2025 – Middle East Tensions Rise as Netanyahu Suggests Iran Regime Change, but Experts Doubt Uprising
As Israel intensifies its military operations against Iran, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has suggested that the conflict could trigger regime change in Tehran. Speaking to Fox News, Netanyahu called Iran’s leadership “very weak,” claiming that 80% of Iranians would oust the regime if given the chance.
However, experts and Iranian citizens speaking to international outlets say that while public dissatisfaction with the Islamic Republic is widespread, an uprising fueled by Israeli attacks is highly unlikely.
Netanyahu’s Regime Change Comments Spark Debate
Netanyahu’s comments have amplified calls for regime change from hawkish U.S. lawmakers and members of the Iranian diaspora. He stated:
“They shoot women because their hair is uncovered. They shoot students. They just suck the oxygen out of these brave and gifted people.”
Despite his assertions, analysts warn that Israeli airstrikes may unite Iranians in nationalist sentiment, rather than fuel rebellion.
Iranian Public Sentiment: Distrust of Foreign Intervention
Many Iranians remain critical of their own government but reject Netanyahu’s approach. Arash Azizi, an Iran expert and author of What Iranians Want, told CNN:
“Any idea that this will lead to a popular uprising… has very little basis in reality.”
Inside Iran, protests have been scarce since the conflict began. Citizens now focused on survival amid missile strikes and bombing campaigns have little capacity for political mobilization.
A local journalist in Tehran noted,
“The people are terrified, trying to protect their children… the streets are emptier than ever.”
Iranian Civil Society Opposes War, Demands Democratic Change
Notable Iranian activists, including Nobel Laureates Narges Mohammadi and Shirin Ebadi, have denounced the war in a joint op-ed, urging both an end to violence and a peaceful transition of power.
In contrast, Reza Pahlavi, exiled son of Iran’s former monarch, has endorsed Israel’s actions as a path toward regime change. His comments have divided the Iranian diaspora, with some praising him and others calling it betrayal.
Regional Leaders Warn Against Forced Regime Change
UAE adviser Anwar Gargash cautioned that military intervention rarely reshapes the Middle East positively.
“When a country feels under attack, nationalism tends to intensify,” he said, adding that confrontation may solve short-term issues but will create long-term instability.
Civilian Casualties Mount on Both Sides
Israel’s bombardment has killed at least 224 people in Iran, according to Iranian state media. Meanwhile, Iranian missile strikes have resulted in 24 deaths and nearly 600 injuries in Israel. Netanyahu’s defense minister warned that “Tehran will pay the price,” though later clarified civilians are not the target.
Outlook: Experts Warn of Military-Led Shift, Not Popular Uprising
While regime change in Iran remains a possibility, analysts argue that it may not take the democratic form Netanyahu envisions. Mohammad Ali Shabani of Amwaj Media wrote:
“The result may be a military-led administration—potentially nuclear-armed—rather than a democracy.”
Conclusion: Israel-Iran War Raises Global Concerns, But Regime Change Remains Remote
Despite escalating rhetoric and violence, most observers agree that Netanyahu’s calls for revolution are unrealistic under current conditions. Iranians may continue to resist their government — but not under foreign fire.
