Israel is “fully ready” to launch a military operation against Iran, according to a CBS News report- a step that could upend fragile diplomacy, trigger retaliatory strikes against US assets in the region, and plunge the Middle East into a wider war.Why it matters
- US intelligence believes Iran is inching closer to nuclear weapons capability, while diplomatic talks to contain its program appear to be stalling. The US has warned Israel against unilateral military action, but appears to be bracing for exactly that.
- US President
Donald Trump ’s administration has been pursuing a new nuclear agreement with Iran, but recent rhetoric signals fading hopes. - The US state department has ordered non-emergency staff to exit Iraq, and the Pentagon authorized voluntary departure for military dependents across the region.
- “They are being moved out because it could be a dangerous place,” Trump said Wednesday at the Kennedy Center. “We’ve given notice to move out, and we’ll see what happens.”
The big pictureThe US has steadily repositioned diplomatic and military personnel over recent weeks, as tensions have risen sharply across the region. On Wednesday, Britain’s Maritime Trade Organization issued a rare warning for shipping vessels navigating the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz, and Gulf of Oman – vital corridors for global oil trade – citing risks of military escalation.Behind the scenes, Israel’s government under Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has grown increasingly convinced that Iran is using negotiations as cover to advance its nuclear program. Netanyahu’s office claims Israel has executed “countless overt and covert operations” to stall Iran’s progress, but officials believe a military operation may now be required.The backstoryNetanyahu has long opposed any diplomatic agreement that allows Iran to continue uranium enrichment. He publicly clashed with Obama over the 2015 deal and was reportedly warned last month by President Trump to delay any military action until negotiations conclude.“I told him this would be inappropriate to do right now because we’re very close to a solution,” Trump said in May. That restraint may now be breaking down.Iran continues to insist its nuclear ambitions are peaceful – focused on energy and medical uses – but IAEA inspectors and US officials remain unconvinced. Last month, US intelligence estimated that Iran could produce enough fissile material for a weapon in a matter of weeks.What they’re saying
- President Trump emphasized the US would not accept a nuclear-armed Iran: “We’re not going to allow that.”
- Iran’s defense minister Gen Aziz Nasirzadeh warned: “If conflict is imposed on us, the opponent’s casualties will certainly be more than ours, and in that case, America must leave the region, because all its bases are within our reach. We have access to them, and we will target all of them in the host countries without hesitation.”
- An Iranian official told Reuters: “Any military action against Iran, whether by the US or Israel, will have serious consequences.”
Zoom inIran’s uranium stockpile has grown rapidly. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) estimated just weeks ago that Iran now holds 408.6 kilograms of uranium enriched up to 60% purity – alarmingly close to the 90% threshold needed for a nuclear bomb. That marks a jump of nearly 50% from its stockpile earlier this year.Meanwhile, nuclear negotiations remain deeply uncertain. US envoy Steve Witkoff still plans to meet Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi in Oman this weekend – the sixth round of talks. But even that meeting is no longer guaranteed. “I’m getting more and more less confident,” Trump said on the “Pod Force One” podcast this week. “Something happened to them.”Between the lines: A region on edge
- This moment is the result of a long unraveling of nuclear diplomacy. Trump withdrew the US from the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement – brokered under President Barack Obama – during his first term, reinstating punishing sanctions and vowing to secure a tougher deal.
- Iran, in turn, restarted its enrichment efforts, expanded centrifuge capacity.
- In the aftermath of Israel’s brief war with Hamas in 2023, tensions have simmered across Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Iranian-aligned militias remain embedded within Iraqi security forces. “Axis of Resistance” groups, which include Hezbollah and Yemen’s Houthis, have pledged to confront US and Israeli influence.
- Already, 2024 saw two unprecedented exchanges of direct fire between Iran and Israel, with missiles and drones crossing Iraqi airspace. That threshold, once unthinkable, has already been crossed.
- Defense secretary Pete Hegseth testified earlier Wednesday that “there are plenty of indications that Iran has been moving their way towards something that would look a lot like a nuclear weapon.”
- General Erik Kurilla, head of US Central Command, has provided President Trump with “a wide range of options” to prevent Iran from reaching nuclear breakout, according to defense sources.
- Kurilla postponed a Senate testimony scheduled for Thursday, fueling speculation that the administration is on heightened military alert.
What’s nextIf Israel moves forward with its strike, Iran is expected to retaliate against American and allied assets across the Middle East. That includes US bases in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain, and the UAE – all within missile range of Iran and its proxies.Oil markets are already reacting. News of potential embassy evacuations pushed Brent crude up more than 4% to over $69 per barrel. Any strike in or near the Strait of Hormuz – through which 20% of the world’s oil passes – would likely spike prices further.(With inputs from agencies)
