In the past weeks, hundreds of thousands of students earned diplomas from colleges and universities across the country. But for many, the biggest challenge still lies ahead: landing a job in their major.
From the rise of artificial intelligence to uncertainly surrounding President Donald Trump’s tariff policies, the opportunities for the newly minted graduates could be more limited than in recent years – especially in tech jobs, according to Oxford Economics, a global economic forecasting company.
That’s not to say there aren’t any jobs. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said there were 7.2 million job openings in March. That’s about where the job market stood in the months before the pandemic. On June 3, we’ll find out about April’s numbers.
Job openings tumble from historic high in 2022
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While unemployment rose modestly in the past year and the economy continues to add jobs, some caution lights are starting to flash in the job market. Initial jobless claims, while still relatively low, rose and were a higher-than-expected 240,000 for the week ending May 24. Perhaps more important for new graduates: Continued jobless claims are at their highest level since 2021.
“Continued claims continue to creep higher, confirming that workers who lose their jobs are finding it tougher to find new employment,” wrote Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics, in her note May 29 about the Labor Department’s release.
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In recent weeks, economists have noted that fluctuating tariffs – most recently impacted by Wednesday’s court ruling blocking many of them – have created uncertainty for businesses, prompting many to hold off on staffing decisions.
“New graduates are entering the job market at a time when the future is murky and many pathways for career entry are less reliable,” wrote Allison Shrivastava, an Indeed Hiring Lab economist, in an April report about the class of 2025’s job outlook. “Job openings are increasingly concentrated in fields that may not align with every grad’s aspirations.”
So while there are millions of job postings, many entry-level roles aren’t in the industries graduates had hoped their degrees would lead to. In fact, according to data from Indeed – one of the country’s largest job sites – many of the positions in highest demand don’t likely require a college degree.
Percentage of posted jobs requiring less than a year of experience
AI adds another challenge for recent graduates
According to Oxford Economics’ new college graduate report, over the past two decades, college enrollment surged in programs leading to entry-level roles in computer system design and related tech fields. However, since 2022, positions in computer and mathematical sciences have been among the first affected as companies increasingly adopt artificial intelligence systems.
Before the pandemic, unemployment rates for recent college graduates – adults between 22 and 27 years old – were generally well below the overall rate. Since mid-2023, the relationship has flipped. Now recent graduates’ unemployment rates are higher and pushing up the overall unemployment rate.
Recent college graduates’ unemployment rate now above national rate
Like tech programs, the number of health care courses and programs surged during the past decade. Yet unlike many other fields, job opportunities in health care remain strong. In fact, medical careers dominate Indeed’s latest list of job postings with the highest growth since 2020.
Demand for health care skills remains strong
Still, most unemployed recent graduates remain active in their job search despite early setbacks, according to Oxford Economics. While older workers may stop looking – lowering the unemployment rate for their age groups – graduates’ persistence may provide a more accurate picture of a more challenging job market.
If a full-time job remains elusive, Shrivastava recommends exploring internship opportunities, which can help recent graduates get a foot in the door. Pharmacy roles often top Indeed’s job board – largely because internships are a licensing requirement – but many of the other top listings align closely with a wider variety of college degrees.
Careers where the most internships are available
History still on the side of those with bachelors degrees
While the path to a first job may be rocky for these new graduates, they can take comfort in a frequently cited statistic: on average, individuals with a bachelor’s degree earn $1 million more over their lifetimes than those with only a high school diploma, and $500,000 more than those with an associate degree.
Oxford Economic also notes college educated workers typically weather economic downturns better than those workers with less education who might work in service industries such as construction or retail.
