Late Saturday night, ESPN reported that Kevin Durant has three preferred destinations: the Miami Heat, Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs. The timing of that reporting was, to say the least, a tad conspicuous.
Durant has effectively been on the trade market since February. Even though he ultimately remained with the Phoenix Suns at the trade deadline, the writing has been on the wall since they tried to move him to the Golden State Warriors without his consent. All of the reporting since then has acknowledged the reality that he would get traded, so, on paper, the idea that a list of preferred destinations would not get reported until mid-June sounds a bit strange.
The rest of Shams Charania’s reporting, combined with some things that have taken place surrounding the negotiations, paints a clearer picture of what might be happening here. As Charania also noted, “the Suns have made clear to the six to eight seriously interested teams that they will make the best deal for the franchise, even if it means trading Durant to a team outside his preferred list.”
We don’t know who all of those teams are, but obviously, that’s a bigger number than three, the number of reported favorites for Durant. Two teams have been reported as possible trade partners since the deadline: the Minnesota Timberwolves and New York Knicks.
Minnesota, by several accounts, has been particularly aggressive in its pursuit of Durant. The Ringer’s Zach Lowe, for instance, said that the most buzz surrounding Durant talks was on Minnesota. From Friday night into Saturday, the Timberwolves were the betting favorite to land Durant based on odds from at least one major sportsbook. While there’s no way of knowing what books do and do not know, there have been notable offseason cycles defined by the books figuring something out before reporters have.
While the majority of the smoke surrounds Minnesota, there are plenty of other plausible suitors not among those top three teams. Take the Toronto Raptors. Reports have suggested they plan to be aggressive this offseason, but with Giannis Antetokounmpo seemingly staying in Milwaukee, Durant is the only superstar known to be available. The Raptors were one of the teams that reportedly explored a Durant trade in 2022, and Masai Ujiri has experience trading for a star who doesn’t want to play in Toronto, as he did so with Kawhi Leonard in 2018 and won a championship.
So what does this have to do with the reveal of Durant’s preferred destinations? Well, with negotiations heating up and a deal expected soon, Durant may be attempting to deter undesirable suitors by suggesting that he may not be enthused about playing for them. This is a commonly used tactic in star trade negotiations, and we know it’s one Durant has employed in the past because it just happened at the deadline with the Warriors.
Here’s where things get more complicated. An expiring contract is often enough to scare teams off of trades like this. It’s common sense: rarely will teams want to pay the sort of price it takes to get a Durant-level player if they’re only getting him for one year. But remember, Durant will be 37 years old on opening night. On July 6, he’ll be eligible for a two-year, $122 million contract extension. He has a lengthy injury history, and while he remains an All-Star, the metrics suggest he is not quite the unimpeachable MVP candidate he once was. In the cap-obsessed NBA, it might actually make more sense to get Durant for one year than to risk paying him for his age-38 and -39 seasons.
Take the Timberwolves for instance. A rumored deal would send Rudy Gobert, Donte DiVincenzo and some combination of youth and draft capital to Phoenix for Durant. Obviously, the idea would be to compete for the 2026 championship with Durant in tow. However, Minnesota also already owes a max salary to Anthony Edwards, will have to figure out a long-term deal with Julius Randle this offseason (or trade him to a team that wants to pay him), and has Jaden McDaniels on an expensive contract as well. Paying all four players for multiple years might not be feasible.
But if the Timberwolves make this trade now, they get out of the three expensive years left on Gobert’s contract, which cover his age-33, -34 and -35 seasons. They obviously could potentially extend Durant down the line if he changed his mind and decided he wants to stay there, but even if he were to leave after a year, the deal could still function as the highest-profile cap dump in NBA history. There’s some possible value in that, and even if there weren’t from a basketball standpoint, the Timberwolves have new ownership whose willingness to spend is not currently clear.
The Raptors have obviously done this dance before. They traded for Leonard in 2018 knowing he planned to go to Los Angeles in 2019. Part of why they were willing to do that was because the price to get him was so low that the reward exceeded the risk. Who cares if you lose DeMar DeRozan, Jakob Poeltl and a single, bad first-round pick? Considering the expected return for Durant at this stage of his career, it’s possible other teams are thinking as the Raptors once did. If the price is minimal, the reward exceeds the risk. If Durant was still worth Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson and five first-round picks, no team would take such a chance.
Ironically, the two teams with the capacity to blow these low-ball offers out of the water are Houston and San Antonio. They are two of the asset-richest teams in basketball, and either could outbid the Minnesotas and Torontos of the world without lifting a finger. Of course, that could work against Durant just as easily. The Spurs and Rockets can afford to be picky. They can wait for a younger star to become available, or simply hold onto their youth and picks and build organically. Teams like Minnesota and Toronto have less optionality. For them, Durant might be a necessity.
Durant has other levers he could potentially pull here. Just the thought of having a player so important and respected who doesn’t want to play for you might scare certain teams. But look at how Durant responded to remaining with the Nets in 2022. Despite an offseason full of trade drama, he averaged more than 29 points per game before his eventual trade to Phoenix. Durant is a professional. It’s hard to imagine him blowing up a season as other disillusioned stars have.
The Durant talks appear to be ongoing. He’s seemingly made it clear where he wants to be. But unlike other moving stars, it’s far less clear if he will be able to get there. His expiring contract is not as detrimental than it might seem, and to some teams, it might’ve even be viewed as an asset. If the Spurs, Rockets or Heat want to get Durant, they can’t just expect him to fall into their laps. The Suns are going to make the best trade for themselves. They have no reason to accommodate Durant’s preferences, so if the market dictates a move somewhere else, there’s a good chance that’s where he winds up.
