NEW DELHI: Constant decrease in the flow volume of western rivers – Indus, Jhelum and Chenab – from India has left Pakistan discharging more water than what it’s receiving to sustain its drinking water and irrigation needs. While this appears normal during the pre-monsoon season, the situation may turn grim in the coming weeks as regular desilting and flushing of dams by India in Jammu & Kashmir to increase its own storage capacity will further lessen the water flow to the other side.The daily water situation report, released by Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA), shows that the country on Wednesday had to discharge 11,180 cusecs more water than the inflow.Its collective outflow, measured at different monitoring stations (Tarbela on Indus, Mangla on Jhelum, Marala on Chenab and Nowshera on Kabul river), stood at 2,52,791 cusecs compared to the inflow of 2,41,611 cusecs. More outflow than inflow will eventually lead to a further drop in water availability in two key provinces – Punjab and Sindh – which depend on waters from the western rivers of the Indus system.On Wednesday, Pakistan’s Punjab province, where kharif farming has begun, received 1,14,600 cusecs of water compared to 1,43,600 cusecs on the same day last year – a decline of 20%.Pakistan is still nearly a month away from getting monsoon rains, but water storage in its two key dams – Mangla on river Jhelum and Tarbela on Indus – has already reached close to their respective ‘dead levels’ (there are no outlets to drain water from the reservoirs by gravity below the level).“This means further decrease in water flow from the Indian side may leave Pakistan with few options to facilitate farming operations before the arrival of the monsoon,” said an official.Pakistan’s IRSA advisory committee, at its meeting last month, apprehended the crisis when it declared an overall shortage of 21% for the early kharif season (May 1-June 10), noting “sudden decrease” in Chenab’s inflows at Marala “due to short supply by India”. It expected shortages of 7% in the late kharif season (June 11-Sept 30).Though the situation will start improving from early next month when monsoon hits Pakistan, the authorities would find regulation of water for regular discharge difficult in the absence of water flow data from India following the suspension of Indus Water Treaty. India, which has kept the 1960 treaty in abeyance over the Pahalgam terror attack in April, is not under any obligation to share the data with Pakistan in the present situation.
