NEW DELHI: Updating its monsoon forecast, the IMD on Tuesday stuck to its previous prediction of ‘above normal’ rainfall in the country during the four-month (June-Sept) rainy season but upgraded the quantitative rainfall figure. It also said the average rainfall in India during June is most likely to be ‘above normal’, making the month less hot with ‘below normal’ heat wave days.Quantitatively, the country is likely to get 106% of the long period average (LPA) rainfall. Earlier in April, IMD had predicted this figure to be 105% of LPA. The LPA (1971-2020 period) of seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole is 87 cm.Making a region-wise forecast for spatial distribution of rainfall, the Met department for the first time released the probability forecast category for all 36 meteorological subdivisions in the country. It shows 31 out of 36 subdivisions, including the Delhi-Haryana-Chandigarh, will get ‘above normal’ rainfall.The Met department also predicted ‘above normal’ rainfall for the ‘monsoon core zone’ (areas where farming operations largely depend on seasonal rainfall), sending a positive signal for the overall farming operations in the country.Above-normal rain boosts crops, aids record outputGood monsoon rainfall not only helps kharif (summer sown) crops but also the rabi (winter sown) crops by keeping water bodies full for the lean season. The ‘above normal’ monsoon rainfall is, therefore, expected to help increase the acreage and production of different crops and steer the country towards realising its goal of record foodgrain output of 354 million tonne in the 2025-26 crop year.
The monsoon that hit Kerala on May 24, eight days before its normal onset date, has already covered Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, south Andhra Pradesh, south Maharashtra and most parts of northeast.“During June, most of the country is expected to receive ‘above normal’ (more than 108% of LPA) rainfall. However, some southern parts of peninsular India and parts of northwest and northeast India may receive below-normal rain,” said M Ravichandran, secretary in the ministry of earth sciences, while releasing the monsoon update.
