Icebreakers and golf forge Trump and Finnish leader’s unlikely friendship

There was no small talk required to break the ice between these two leaders who have become unlikely friends.

Instead, it was real ice breakers – 9,000-tonne hulking ships – that sealed a deal between Donald Trump and Finland’s President Alexander Stubb, cementing their growing business and personal relations.

Trump was smiling in their Oval Office meeting on Thursday, leaning in slightly, and nodding in agreement to the man who has become, to many, an unlikely spokesman for Europe.

Finland’s Alexander Stubb is a leader who, despite his country’s relatively small size, has the US president’s ear more than most.

“We’ve been friends for a long time,” Trump remarked as they sat, facing each other, under a painting of a young George Washington.

For the next hour, the two men discussed a broad range of issues – but primarily a deal to purchase 11 icebreaker ships.

These are a difficult-to-build Finnish nautical speciality the country uses to break through to ports frozen over in harsh Scandinavian winters, and which Trump has long had his eyes on.

Four of those will be built in the US using Finnish know-how, which Stubb promised “means investments, means jobs and means hope” – which a grateful Trump said was necessary given Finland’s proximity to Russia and what he termed the “ridiculous” war in Ukraine.

More than any aspect of the bilateral relationship between the US and Finland, the Ukraine war has thrust the relationship between Stubb and Trump into international headlines.

Among many observers of the war, Stubb is seen as one of the Nato leaders perhaps best able to sway Trump towards Europe’s position on Russia and its leader, Vladimir Putin.

“I see Finland’s outsized influence in Washington as a direct result of the close personal relationship between Stubb and Trump,” said Jason Moyer, an expert in transatlantic relationships at the Washington-based Atlantic Council.

“Finland and Stubb’s pragmatism, knowledge of Russia, consistent support for Ukraine, and the fact that it has specialised technological know-how in its icebreaker ecosystem, provide Finland a larger-than-expected, and certainly well deserved, role in the transatlantic relationship.” he added.

At first glance, the two men could not seem more different.

While Trump became formally involved in politics late in life after a long career in real estate, his younger Finnish counterpart began his own career through more academic pursuits.

He was a researcher for Finland’s representative office at the European Union, before working his way through various positions until becoming an MEP in 2004, minister of foreign affairs, prime minister and – last year – his country’s president.

Stubb’s role as what some media outlets have described as a “Trump whisperer” has not gone unnoticed in other European capitals.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in July thanked him for “helping build a connection” with Trump as the war in Ukraine continued to rage.

At the White House the following month, Stubb sat beside Zelensky – and directly across the table from Trump – at a summit that included the leaders of Germany, France, Italy, the UK, the European Commission and the EU.

“Finland is a country of 5.5m people,” Mr Moyer said. “It shows how interested Trump is [in Finland] and drives home how large an influence the Finns have.”

The two men have a warm relationship, and text or call each other often – sometimes on a weekly basis, according to two sources familiar with the conversations.

According to Stubb, one such call took place the night before Thursday’s Oval Office meeting.

“The White House had learned that if the phone is on ‘do not disturb’ mode, if you ring three times it lets you through,” Stubb told reporters.

It was Trump on the line, who told him he wanted new icebreakers.

While these conversations are often policy-focused, sometimes they are simply friendly chats over a shared passion – golf.

It’s Trump’s favourite pastime and a sport for which Stubb once represented Finland as a member of its national team.

“The golf really matters,” said Brent Nelsen, a former professor of Stubb’s at Furman University in Georgia, at which the Finnish president studied on a golf scholarship in the late 1980s and early 1990s. “He’s a really, really good golfer.”

The importance of Stubb and Trump’s shared interest was highlighted in March, when Stubb made a surprise appearance at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida to play with the US president, South Carolina Republican Senator Lindsey Graham and famed South African golfer Gary Player.

Instantly, Trump was wowed by the Finn’s abilities.

On Truth Social, Trump wrote that he is “a very good player” and that the two won a member-guest tournament together.

“Trump loved that. Alex [Stubb] said he had a really good round,” said Mr Nelson, who has remained in close contact with his former student and now friend, with whom he penned a textbook about the EU.

“Trump is always impressed with superior talent. Somebody who has some gift that really makes him stand out.”

Over 18 holes on the sunny golf course, the two men chatted over a wide range of subjects, ranging from icebreakers to Ukraine. This time together, Stubb later recalled, allowed the two men to get a feel for one another.

“You learn about the personality of a human being on the first hole of a golf course,” he told Bloomberg. “You see if they’re edgy, if they’re impatient, if they’re fun, if they’re relaxed. I have to say, I had no uncomfortable moments during that round.”

Over lunch, Trump asked the Finn whether he could trust Putin, a man who Trump has repeatedly claimed to have a “great relationship” with.

“You cannot,” Stubb replied, he told Bloomberg.

Within hours, Trump told NBC that he was “pissed off” and “very angry” with Putin – his harshest and most pointed criticism of the Russian leader at that point of Trump’s second term.

Mr Nelsen said that the conversation obviously convinced the president.

“Alex spent seven hours with him in that golf cart,” he said. “That had some impact on what Trump was thinking.”

Trump’s most recent Oval Office meeting with Stubb came just one day after Trump announced a ceasefire agreement between Hamas and Israel.

“Nobody in history has solved eight wars in a period of nine months, and I’ve stopped eight wars,” Trump said in the meeting.

“I did it because I saved a lot of lives, and that’s the thing that bothers me so much about Russia-Ukraine.”

Stubb sat silently as he spoke, and just a few minutes later, reporters were ushered from the room.

But behind closed doors and away from the cameras, Stubb said he and Trump once again discussed the war and the Finn conveyed messages from Zelensky, although he did not provide any details.

A more detailed chat on Ukraine, it seems, will have to wait.

And no golf on this trip.