More than four decades after Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomenei committed the Islamic Republic of Iran to the destruction of the Jewish state,
Israel has dealt catastrophic blows to the ayatollah’s regime
— the military leadership has been decapitated, air defences have been destroyed, critical infrastructure and military sites stand battered, and the Supreme Leader remains in hiding. But Israel needs US help to go the final mile.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu set the
destruction of Iran’s nuclear capabilities
as the principal objective of ‘Operation Rising Lion’. As Israel does not have capabilities to destroy Iran’s underground nuclear sites, that’s an impossible objective unless Israel’s principle partner, the United States, steps in.
Follow our live coverage of the Israel-Iran war
The war
might appear as a gamble
as the success rests on whether US President Donald Trump joins or not, that is not the case and the decision to launch the war was a calculated move, says Daphne Richemond Barak, a professor of international relations at the Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy & Strategy at Israel’s Reichman University.
Despite being the principal objective, the destruction of nuclear sites is the one that’s least achieved so far as the Fordow nuclear site, which houses Iran’s most advanced centrifuges that produce near-weapons grade uranium, remains standing. But that may change soon as
Trump sought Iran’s “unconditional surrender”
on Tuesday and appeared to set the tone for military action.
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Barak tells Firstpost, “There is definitely a certain hope on part of Prime Minister Netanyahu of the United States joining the war. Israel has already degraded Iran’s capabilities to a great extent that goes a long way in denying it a nuclear weapon.”
Fordow: The mountain nuclear base that stands in way of Israeli victory — and how Israel plans to breach it
After striking Natanz, all eyes are on the Fordow nuclear site, which is housed in an Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) base and built inside a mountain. It is situated near the holy city of Qom.
While some sources say it goes as deep as half a mile underground, Barak, a specialist in underground warfare, says the facility reaches the depth of 60-100 metres — beyond the scope of Israel’s munitions.
Barak says that Fordow is not built simply under 60-100 metres of soil, but it is built under 60 to 100 metres of concrete. The Natanz site is understood to be similarly built with 20-3o metres of concrete above it.
“For more than a decade, Iran has progressively and consistently placed its nuclear programme deep underground. While Fordow and Natanz are well known, such facilities are spread across Iran. Israel can attempt to destroy such facilities in two ways. The first is the Nasrallah way and the second is through special, heavy ‘bunker buster’ munitions that only the United States has,” says Barak.
The first option refers to
how Israel assassinated former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah
last year in Beirut, Lebanon. He was also hiding in a bunker with 18-20 metres of concrete above him.
“Israel struck the top of Nasrallah’s bunker with precision-guided bombs. Israel launched bombs on top of each other until they breached through 20 metres of concrete and killed Nasrallah. Such brute strength is enough to reach the underground levels of Natanz but not Fordow,” says Barak.
In Nasrallah’s case, Israel dropped around 80 tons of explosives in serial strikes on top of each other within just 10 seconds — like hammering an 80-ton explosive nail through concrete until it reached Nasrallah.
In the second option, US ‘bunker buster’ munitions, the GBU-43/B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) and GBU-57A/B Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs, would be used. They can penetrate up to 60 metres of concrete. To breach the reinforced roof of the Fordow facility, multiple strikes of such ordnance — colloquially called ‘mother of all bombs’— would be required.
“These bombs have hardened metal tips and are heavy by themselves even without explosives. With their weight and speed that they are launched from, these bombs penetrate their target whether it’s soil or concrete. They do not explode immediately on impact,” Barak says.
“Instead, they explode after they have penetrated the target. The delayed explosion after penetration means the damage is concentrated inside the target structure and not on top of it. This also increases the radius of the area these bombs damage,” says Barak, the author of the book ‘Underground Warfare’ (2018).
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It is not just that these bombs are with the United States, but only a select few in the US military have the expertise to launch them. The GBU-43/B MOAB can only be launched by a modified C-130 aircraft from its ramp and GBU-57A/B MOP can only be launched from a B-2 stealth bomber.
While the United States can theoretically loan these assets to Israel, it will likely not be the case as the United States guards such technology zealously even from its closest allies and partners. This means that if such bunker busters are used, they would most likely be dropped by the US Air Force itself.
Barak says that Prime Minister Netanyahu is hopeful the United States will join and there are multiple ways that may happen.
“President Trump might decide to join proactively or he could join in response to an Iranian attack on US bases in the region or could launch a pre-emptive strike in response to an imminent attack. After all, the Israeli operation is also a pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear programme as Israel believes that this would be the final window to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon,” says Barak.
Indeed, there are indications that may happen — or at least preparations are being made.
Trump lays groundwork for attack on Iran
After maintaining for the first three days of the war that he would prefer a deal with Iran to end the conflict, Trump started laying groundwork for direct military involvement over the weekend.
After moving more than 30 aerial refuelling tankers to Europe to support operations in West Asia over the weekend, Trump bolstered existing squadrons in the region with additional fighter planes on Tuesday.
US Navy’s Nimitz carrier strike group is also being rushed to the region to join Carl Vinston carrier strike group — two carrier strike groups generally comprise at least 120 warplanes, four cruisers, four destroyers, and possibly submarines as well.
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In what appeared to be an attempt to set pretext for an attack, the Trump administration posted dozens of videos of Trump in a thread on X that mentioned all the occasions over the years when Trump said he would not allow Iran to develop a nuclear weapon.
Barak says that the US positioning might not just be about attacking Iran, but it could also be about pressuring Iran into reaching a deal — Trump after all prides himself as a master dealmaker.
What’s the road ahead? 4 possibilities
As Israel has battered Iran and cornered Khamenei, Barak tells Firstpost there are four possibilities how the conflict might conclude.
Firstly, Trump might join the war and bomb Iran’s nuclear sites.
Secondly, Trump refuses to join the war but supports Israel’s war — minus the supply of bunker busters to destroy the Fordow site.
“In such a case, it might appear that Israel would have lost, but that would not be the case. Even without destroying Fordow, Israel has degraded Iran’s capabilities and set the Iranian nuclear programme back by many years. That is a good enough outcome for Israel short of complete destruction of nuclear capabilities,” says Barak.
Thirdly, the Israeli campaign serves as a pressure on Khamenei to enter negotiations seriously and reach a deal.
Fourthly, even as Israel batters Iran, the people of the country rise up against Khamenei’s regime — Netanyahu has said that one of the outcomes of the war could be a change of regime in Iran.
However, not everyone agrees with Barak. There is a line of thought that anything short of complete destruction of Iranian nuclear capabilities would lead to Khamenei going full-throttle for the development of a nuclear weapon to make up for lost conventional deterrence. Barak says that he would not be in a position to do so.
“A week ago, Khamenei could perhaps have developed a weapon in a short duration if he wanted to. Now, we are not living in the same world as a week ago. The various capabilities involved in making a nuclear weapon have been degraded enough so that even if the Fordow site is left standing, Iran would not be in a position to make a nuclear weapon for years,” says Barak.
Even though Israel could not cause much damage to the underground levels of the Natanz facility, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi has told BBC News that all centrifuges at the underground uranium enrichment facility at the Natanz nuclear site were “severely damaged if not destroyed altogether”.
While the centrifuges were not directly hit, they were still affected as Israel’s aboveground strikes “completely destroyed” electricity systems that were required to sustain those centrifuges, according to Grossi.
Could Natanz’s centrifuges be a metaphor for what might be in the offing for Khamenei? While Israel may not go after Khamenei, a chain reaction may still paralyse his regime in the days to come.
