Gold price prediction today: Gold rates have been fluctuating in the last few weeks and no clear upside or downside is obvious. Global events, such as Donald Trump’s tariff moves and geopolitical conflicts are shaping the movement of gold prices on a daily basis. In such uncertain scenarios, what should investors do? What’s the outlook on gold prices in the near term? Praveen Singh, Senior Fundamental Research Analyst- Currencies and Commodities at Mirae Asset Sharekhan shares his views:Gold Performance:Spot gold rallied sharply in the week ending May 23 on soaring safe haven demand due to the rating agency Moody’s downgrading the US credit rating on May 17 and heightened economic uncertainty due to the US President imposing a 50% tariff on European goods from June 1. The US President Trump has delayed the 50% EU tariffs to July 9.Last week, US treasuries cratered, and the US Dollar Index slumped on worries over the state of the US economy. Spot gold recorded a huge weekly gain of 4.84% as it closed at $3357; it was up by 1.89% on Friday. Yesterday, the US markets were closed to observe Memorial Day Holiday, while the London market is observing Spring Bank Holiday. Tariff developments:On May 23, President Trump said that he would be imposing a 50% tariff on European goods starting June 1 as he felt that US-Europe talks on trade deals were not going anywhere. Trump’s tariff threats were not limited to Europe only. In fact, he also threatened Samsung and Apple with a 25% tariff if their products are not made in the US. Later, on May 25, Trump walked back on tariff threats to Europe as he extended the deadline to July 9 citing positive talks with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen who said that Europe is ready to advance talks swiftly and decisively. US Dollar Index and yields:Deepening concerns over the US economic outlook amid tariff uncertainty have weighed heavily on the US bonds and the Dollar Index. Both ten-year and thirty-year US yields surged past the post-reciprocal tariff levels last week. On May 22, ten-year US yields soared to 4.62%, highest since February 2025 before backing off on Trump calling for a 50% tariff rate for Europe. Similarly, 30-year yields surged to 5.15%, highest since October 2023. Ten-year and thirty-year yields closed at the highest weekly levels since January 1 and October 27 respectively. The US Dollar Index fell nearly 2% last week to end at 99.11, the lowest daily close since April 28, and is currently at 99.03 is down by around 0.07%. The Index is threatening to breach the post reciprocal low of 97.92 reached on April 21. ETF holdings:Total known global gold ETF holdings stood at 87.86 MOz as of May 23, down nearly 2% from the peak level of 89.77 MOz seen on April 21; holdings fell for the fifth straight week to the lowest level since April 8. Nonetheless, holdings are still up over 6% YTD. Weekly CFTC gold data:Hedge Fund managers have increased their bullish gold bets by 7,741 bet-long positions to 118,615, the most bullish position in four-weeks, as the short-only total fell to the lowest in eight weeks. Upcoming data and events:Major US data and reports to be released this week include Conference Board Consumer Confidence (May), FOMC minutes (May 7 meeting), GDP (1Q secondary estimate), real personal spending (April), PCE price Index (April) – the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation and University of Michigan Sentiment (May Final) and short-term and long-term inflation expectations. Gold Price Outlook:Gold may fall further on easing trade tensions following President Trump delaying the European tariff to July 9. On Monday, the metal had swung between $3324 and $3358, relatively a narrower range, as New York and London markets were on holiday. Near-term support is seen at $3311/$3292 followed by $3275 and $3250. This week, if no further developments on tariff fronts, is likely to be marked with data driven volatility, as the US economic calendar is quite busy. Easing trade tensions may push the prices further down. Traders may sell with stoploss above $3365-$3371 resistance zone. However, downside may be somewhat limited — may be up to $3292/$3275 or so, on concerns due to erratic trade policies of the US. A correction in gold prices will then give an opportunity to go long on the yellow metal with stoploss below $3250. On the upside, a breach of $3365-$3371 resistance zone will open the way for $3435. Above $3435, the all-time high of $3500 will come into the focus.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
