Gold price prediction today: Gold rate remains below its record peak, leaving investors uncertain about their trading decisions regarding the precious metal. Which price points should investors monitor? Here’s the analysis from Jateen Trivedi, VP Research Analyst – Commodity and Currency, LKP Securities:MCX Gold June 2025 contract is expected to open with a significant gap down following weakness in COMEX gold overnight. The precious metal, which closed at ₹96500 levels, is likely to face immediate selling pressure as global cues turn negative. This presents a strategic opportunity for intraday traders to capitalize on any pullback rallies. Current Technical Setup
- Previous Close: ₹96500
- Expected Opening Range: ₹96100-96200 (gap down of 300-400 points)
Key Technical Levels:
- EMA 8: ₹96350 (now acting as immediate resistance)
- EMA 21: ₹96100 (potential support turned resistance)
- RSI: Expected to open below 40 (oversold bounce likely)
- MACD: Bearish crossover confirmed with negative histogram
- Bollinger Bands: Price likely to test middle band support
Sell-on-Rise Strategy: 96350-96400 ZoneStrategic Rationale:The 96350-96400 zone represents a confluence of critical resistance factors: 1. EMA 8 Resistance: The 8-day moving average at 96350 will act as dynamic resistance2. Gap Fill Resistance: Markets often struggle to fill gaps completely on first attempt3. Previous Support Turned Resistance: Yesterday’s support levels become today’s resistance4. Psychological Level: Round number resistance at 96400 Entry Parameters:
- Primary Sell Zone: ₹96350-96400
- Ideal Entry: ₹96375 (middle of the resistance zone)
- Stop Loss: ₹96550 (above previous day’s high)
- Target 1: ₹96000 (psychological support)
- Target 2: ₹95800 (next significant support)
- Target 3: ₹95550 (extended target for swing traders)
Execution Strategy:1. Wait for Gap Opening: Allow the market to digest the gap down 2. Monitor Recovery Attempt: Look for pullback rally toward resistance zone 3. Entry Confirmation:
- Bearish reversal candlestick pattern (shooting star, doji, bearish engulfing)
- RSI showing negative divergence near 50-55 levels
- Volume declining on the recovery attempt
4. Risk Management: Trail stop loss to breakeven once Target 1 is achievedMarket Sentiment AnalysisThe overnight weakness in COMEX gold reflects:
- Dollar Strength: DXY showing resilience above key levels
- Yield Pressure: 10-year Treasury yields rising, reducing gold’s appeal
- Risk Appetite: Improving equity markets reducing safe-haven demand
- Technical Breakdown: Key support levels breached in international markets
Risk Factors to Monitor
- Geopolitical Developments: Any sudden safe-haven demand
- Dollar Reversal: Unexpected USD weakness
- Economic Data: US economic releases affecting gold sentiment
- COMEX Recovery: Any sharp recovery in international gold prices
Alternative ScenarioIf gold manages to close the gap and sustain above ₹96500, it would negate the bearish thesis. In such case, traders should:
- Exit short positions immediately
- Reassess the technical picture
- Wait for fresh setup
ConclusionThe expected gap down in MCX gold creates an ideal setup for sell-on-rise strategy. The 96350-96400 resistance zone offers a favorable risk-reward ratio for intraday traders. However, strict adherence to stop losses is crucial given the volatile nature of precious metals.(Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market and other asset classes given by experts are their own. These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India)
