Germany’s far-right AfD suffers series of candidate deaths ahead of local vote

As many as six candidates for Germany’s far-right AfD have died in recent weeks ahead of local elections in the big western state of North Rhine-Westphalia.

Police have made clear there is no evidence of foul play in the deaths, but it means that new ballots will have to be printed and some postal voters will have to recast their ballots.

North Rhine-Westphalia has a population of 18 million and a reported 20,000 candidates will run for office in its 14 September local elections.

The number of deaths has nevertheless raised questions on social media. The state’s interior ministry has pointed out that candidates from other parties, including the Greens and Social Democrats, have also died.

The AfD became Germany’s second biggest party in February’s federal elections, spreading from its eastern heartland to areas of the west too.

The domestic spy agency classified it in May as a right-wing extremist organisation this year, before placing a pause on that description. In three eastern states, its AfD associations are still listed as extremist.

Initial reports centred on news that four of its candidates had died, and then the deaths of two reserve candidates also emerged, prompting a flurry of conspiracy theories on social media.

AfD co-leader Alice Weidel made no effort to quash the speculation, reposting a claim by retired economist Stefan Homburg that the number of candidates’ deaths was “statistically almost impossible”.

However, asked about the rumours in his party, the AfD’s number two figure in North Rhine-Westphalia, Kay Gottschalk, acknowledged on Tuesday that “what I have in front of me – but that’s just partial information – that doesn’t back up these suspicions at the moment”.

He told Politico’s Berlin Playbook Podcast that his party wanted the cases to be investigated “without immediately getting into conspiracy-theory territory”. He said they had to tread carefully with the families concerned as they had lost a family member.

Police told Germany’s DPA news agency that the four initial deaths were either from natural causes or the cause was not being divulged for reasons of family privacy. The two further deaths have been similarly described.

AfD strategists are hoping for gains in North Rhine-Westphalia’s local elections, which are seen as the first test of voters since the new federal government came to power.

In the last state elections in May 2022, the AfD polled just 5.4% in a region that is home to Germany’s industrial heartland in the Ruhr valley and has suffered from steep job losses.

The AfD polled 16.8% in the state in federal elections last February and polls suggest the party could almost match those numbers.

The party has found support among several leading US figures on the right who have accused the German government of trying to suppress the AfD through bureaucracy.

Tech billionaire Elon Musk, who endorsed the far-right party’s migration policies earlier this year, has repeated his support for the AfD in recent days.

“Either Germany votes AfD, or it is the end of Germany,” he claimed.