Former CIA station chief Daniel Hoffman discusses how the U.S. might approach the Israel-Iran conflict if involved, the risks of the use of bunker-busting bombs and the impact of the conflict on geopolitics.
As tensions between Israel and Iran escalate into open conflict, President Donald Trump has signaled that the United States may intervene both to support its ally Israel and to neutralize Iran’s advancing nuclear program. With diplomatic efforts having stalled for over two months, the prospect of military action is now under serious consideration.
Former CIA station chief Dan Hoffman weighed in Thursday on “Mornings with Maria,” describing this moment as potentially one of the most consequential of Trump’s presidency.
“This is such a tenuous time for the United States, for our national security posture in the region and beyond,” Hoffman said. “It’s a time where the president is about to make, I think, one of the most consequential decisions of his time as president.”
At the center of the military debate is Fordow, Iran’s most heavily protected nuclear facility, located a few hours outside Tehran. Built deep underground, Fordow is widely believed to be a central hub of Iran’s atomic weapons efforts. The International Atomic Energy Agency claims Iran has enriched uranium to near weapons grade at this site.
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Military analysts say the facility is so fortified that only U.S. bunker-buster bombs would be capable of destroying it. Hoffman explained that Trump and his advisors are likely assessing whether even those powerful munitions would be enough to finish the job.
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“We would have to be successful, first and foremost,” he said, emphasizing that there is “no certainty” the mission would fully succeed.
He pointed to the broader geopolitical consequences of such a strike, particularly how Iran’s allies might respond.
“The day after, what happens with Iran? Do they double down on their relationships with China, and with North Korea, and Russia to try to stay in power and rebuild a nuclear program? The day after is also critically important,” Hoffman said.
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In January, just days before Trump returned to the Oval Office, Iran and Russia penned a new strategic partnership agreement. That builds on a similar 2021 pact between Iran and China.
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“This is this century’s axis of dictatorships, axis of tyranny,” Hoffman said of the alliances. “Iran is so closely aligned with those nations.”
On Wednesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to mediate the conflict but declined to say how Russia would respond if Israel were to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
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Despite the risks, Hoffman said inaction is also not a viable strategy for the White House.
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“Iran has over 400 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60%. It’s a short technical step to take it to 90%,” he said. “That’s why Iran is a nuclear threshold state. So, to do nothing, as the president has emphasized, is not an option.“
