Hurricane Melissa was made four times more likely by climate change, according to a study.
The category 5 hurricane that struck Jamaica on Tuesday, tore through the Caribbean with winds of up to 185mph and also hit Haiti, the Dominican Republic and Cuba, leaving dozens dead and widespread destruction.
In Jamaica, AccuWeather estimated Melissa could cost $22bn in damages and economic loss and that rebuilding could take a decade or more.
Hurricane Melissa hit Montego Bay in Jamaica. Pic: Reuters
Researchers at Imperial College London estimated that in a world without climate change, a weaker hurricane would have been about 12% less damaging.
They said human-caused global warming not only increased the intensity but also the likelihood of the powerful hurricane.
They also found that climate change – caused primarily by the burning of oil, gas and coal – boosted Hurricane Melissa’s wind speed by 7% (11mph).
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‘Unimaginable’ destruction of Hurricane Melissa
In a cooler world without climate change, a Melissa-type hurricane would have made landfall in Jamaica once every 8,000 years, they said.
But in today’s climate, with 1.3C warming, it has become four times more likely with such an event now expected once every 1,700 years.
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Could the tail end of Melissa also hit the UK?
Jamaica now faces an enormous relief effort to help the roughly 400,000 people reportedly affected, in a country where 70% of its population live within 3.1 miles of the sea, the researchers said.
Professor Ralf Toumi, director of the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London, said: “Man-made climate change clearly made Hurricane Melissa stronger and more destructive.
“These storms will become even more devastating in the future if we continue overheating the planet by burning fossil fuels.”
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Co-author Dr Emily Theokritoff said: “As we approach COP30, this is a stark reminder of both the economic logic of reducing emissions now and the moral imperative to rapidly scale up international finance for loss and damage and adaptation in the most vulnerable countries.”
