FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Bryan Norcross provides an exclusive analysis of NOAA’s Atlantic hurricane season outlook predicting above-normal tropical activity. NOAA is calling for between 6 to 10 hurricanes this season.
For the fourth consecutive year, the Atlantic basin is set to enter hurricane season without a single named tropical system forming prior to the official start date of June 1.
The last time forecasters tracked a named storm in the basin prior to the annual start date was in 2021, when a system developed in late May.
Since then, all named first formations have occurred in June, aligning more closely with the climatological average.
With no tropical cyclones currently on the horizon, this marks a notable shift from patterns of preseason storm activity.
A stretch of early-season activity occasionally prompted discussions about moving the official start date of the hurricane season to earlier in May.
The idea seemingly gained traction after a seven-year stretch in which storms consistently formed prior to June 1, but, in recent years, such discussions have lost momentum as preseason activity has diminished.
The current lull in early-season activity is not unprecedented – a similar stretch occurred between 1994 and 2002, when storm activity largely waited after the official start of the season to form.
Atlantic basin satellite as of 5/24/2025
(FOX Weather)
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The combination of the 2024 and 2025 seasons also marks the first time in more than a decade that the National Hurricane Center has not monitored any classified tropical features prior to June 1.
Despite this inactivity, meteorologists caution that a quiet start to the season does not indicate what lies ahead.
Why you should circle June 20 on the calendar
A more telling indicator is whether a tropical storm forms around June 20 – the average date of the first named storm in the Atlantic.
If no system forms around this critical benchmark, attention then shifts to how long beyond June 20 will the first storm take to develop.
The first name on the 2025 list is Andrea, which, again, is not expected to form prior to June 1.
The last time the season’s first storm formed on or after June 20 was in 2014, when Arthur was christened on July 1.
The year ended up relatively inactive, with only eight named storms, six hurricanes and two major hurricanes – far below seasonal averages.
However, a delayed start doesn’t necessarily mean the season will be quiet or free of significant impacts.
In 2005, the first named storm did not form until June 10, yet the season went on to produce 28 named storms, 15 hurricanes with seven major hurricanes, and included monsters such as Katrina, Rita and Wilma.
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Statistically, seasons that begin without a named storm in June tend to be less active.
On average, seasons with late starts, without tropical activity in June or early July, only produce around nine named storms, five hurricanes and two major hurricanes.
A key reason beyond just weather patterns not being conducive for formations is the shortened timeframe for activity.
The Atlantic hurricane season spans 183 days, from June 1 to Nov. 30, but losing an entire month to inactivity effectively removes over 16% of the season’s duration – time that cannot be recouped later in the year, as water temperatures typically cool and atmospheric conditions become less favorable.
While the lack of preseason tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic may seem unusual compared to the past two decades, it is not unprecedented.
Forecasters emphasize that preparation is key and, regardless of how the season starts, it only takes one landfalling system to cause significant impacts.
The official hurricane season for the Atlantic Basin (the Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico) is from June 1 to Nov. 30. As seen in the graph above, the peak of the season is Sept. 10. However, deadly hurricanes can occur anytime in the hurricane season.
(FOX Weather)
